Friendlies 3

Oct 13, 2023 at 5pm UK

Estadio do Bonfim

Guinea
1 - 0
Guinea-Bissau

Guilavogui (72')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the International Friendlies Friendlies 3 clash between Guinea and Guinea-Bissau.

Form, Standings, Stats

Guinea

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Malawi 2-2 Guinea
Saturday, September 9 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

Guinea-Bissau

All competitions

Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 2-1 Sierra Leone
Monday, September 11 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	5	9
2	Egypt	3	1	6
3	Sudan	3	-3	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-3	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 46.04%. A draw had a probability of 29.8% and a win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 24.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.31%), while for a Guinea-Bissau win it was 0-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Guinea in this match.

Result
Guinea	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
46.04% ( 0.08)	29.76% ( 0)	24.21% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 38.71% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

32.78% (

-0.05)

67.22% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

14.59% (

-0.04)

85.41% (

0.03)

Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.45% (

0.02)

29.55% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.43% (

0.02)

65.57% (

-0.02)

Guinea-Bissau Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.94% (

-0.12)

45.06% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.02% (

-0.09)

80.98% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

Guinea 46.04%

Guinea-Bissau 24.2%

Draw 29.76%

Guinea	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
1-0 @ 16.23% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 9.89% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.89% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.02% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.21% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.28% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.32% Total : 46.04%	0-0 @ 13.31% ( 0.03) 1-1 @ 12.94% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.36% Total : 29.76%	0-1 @ 10.61% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.16% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.71% Total : 24.2%