Monaco and Montpellier HSC go head to head at the Stade Louis II on Sunday afternoon in what is surprisingly a mid-table battle as things stand in Ligue 1.
The hosts have produced a disappointing start to the season and sit 10th in the table, whilst their visitors are 13th after a surprise victory last time out.
Match preview
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After an uncharacteristically poor start to the 2021-22 season, Monaco appeared to have finally clicked into gear, charging up the table after three wins in four games, with four goals for Wissam Ben Yedder during that time.
They then lost that momentum last weekend, however, with a 2-0 loss away at Lyon, where Karl Toko Ekambi's penalty eventually opened the scoring in the 75th minute and Jason Denayer cemented the result just as the match was heading into stoppage time.
With the Ligue 1 table as congested as it is, that saw the principality side drop from sixth to 10th, although it also means that they remain just three points off a European spot, and there is a long way to go in this campaign.
Niko Kovac will have been pleased to see his side bounce back during the week with a win away at PSV Eindhoven in the Europa League - Myron Boadu's opener was cancelled out by Cody Gakpo on the hour mark, but Sofiane Diop grabbed a winner in the 89th minute to move Les Monegasques to the top of Group B.
That is a pretty impressive feat considering the group also contains current La Liga leaders Real Sociedad, and Kovac should be able to motivate his men to put last weekend's defeat behind them and continue on the trajectory they had appeared to be on prior to it.
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Montpellier will be doing their best to prevent that happening, though, and come into the game on the back of a positive result last weekend.
La Paillade had been struggling somewhat coming into the game against high-flying Lens, unable to convert draws into wins and having produced three stalemates in the last four games, with the exception being a defeat to Paris Saint-Germain.
They defied the form book, however, and secured a 1-0 victory over the team second to PSG in the standings, captain Teji Savanier laying on a great assist for English forward Stephy Mavididi and the team then clinging on to their one-goal lead, despite being reduced to 10 men late on when Jordan Ferri received a second yellow card.
Olivier Dall'Oglio will now be looking to push on from that result and produce another upset against a Monaco side who may be underperforming this term but have plenty of quality in their squad and only just missed out on the Ligue 1 title last season.
The recent history of this fixture is fairly balanced, though, with two wins for each side and two draws in their last six meetings.
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Team News
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Monaco winger Krepin Diatta will miss out with an ankle injury, which limits the hosts' attacking options somewhat, but Ben Yedder will be fairly rested after just a substitute appearance during midweek and ready to return to lead the line here.
Diatta joins midfielders Cesc Fabregas (hamstring) and Aleksandr Golovin (groin) in the treatment room, with Djibril Sidibe also a doubt.
Diop and Gelson Martins were rested on Thursday and should now return to take up their spots on either side of the pitch.
Montpellier's Ferri is suspended after his red card against Lens, which could see Savanier drop deeper or one of Leo Leroy and Junior Sambia brought into the side.
Matheus Thuler remains out with a thigh issue, whilst Thibault Tamas, Pedro Mendes and Ambroise Oyongo are all long-term absences with ACL injuries - the latter is closing in on his return, though.
Monaco possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Aguilar, Badiashile, Maripan, Henrique; Martins, Fofana, Tchouameni, Martins; Volland, Ben Yedder
Montpellier HSC possible starting lineup:
Omlin; Souquet, Esteve, Sakho, Cozza; Savanier, Chotard; Wahi, Mollet, Mavididi; Germain
We say: Monaco 1-1 Montpellier HSC
Despite rotating on Thursday, Kovac's absences mean Monaco will come into this match far less rested than their opponents, who will also be high on confidence after their win over Lens.
The hosts have struggled to keep clean sheets this campaign, but Montpellier have not been great on the road and are without a win on their travels so far this season. All things considered, we are backing a draw.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 69.06%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 12.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.92%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.81%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 0-1 (4.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
