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AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie | Gameweek 13
Dec 20, 2020 at 3.45pm UK
AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Willem II

AZ
5 - 3
Willem II

Koopmeiners (38', 43'), Stengs (53'), Midtsjo (65'), Karlsson (69' pen.)
FT(HT: 2-2)
Aboukhlal (22' og.), Tresor Ndayishimiye (36' pen.), Nunnely (90')
Kohn (68')

Preview: AZ vs. Willem II - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between AZ and Willem II, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

AZ Alkmaar will be aiming to close the gap between themselves and the top two as they host relegation-threatened Willem II on Sunday.

Sixteenth-placed Willem II find themselves just one point off the automatic drop zone and are in woeful form ahead of this fixture.


Match preview

AZ Alkmaar manager Arne Slot pictured in October 2020© Reuters

AZ endured a stuttering start to the Eredivisie season, drawing each of their first five league games as they slipped off the pace.

They also received three red cards in those five games, and have been shown two more in the six games that followed as discipline proves to be a real issue.

However, Arne Slot's men have won five of their last six league games as they do their best to make up for their stuttering start to the campaign.

Losing their Champions League qualifier 2-0 against Dynamo Kiev saw AZ drop into the Europa League. They started their group-stage campaign well, but tapered off and ended up finishing third.

Their exit from European competition leaves them with no more distractions and enables them to focus solely on domestic football.

That bodes poorly for Willem II, who already find themselves in a dire situation, having won just twice so far this season.

Adrie Koster's side find themselves 16th and occupying the relegation playoff position after 12 games and are in very poor form.

They accrued four points from their first three league games, but have picked up just another four in the nine fixtures that followed.

AZ will prove a difficult challenge for the struggling outfit as they look to turn their season around.

AZ Eredivisie form: WWWWLW
AZ form (all competitions): DWDLLW

Willem II Eredivisie form: LLWLLL


Team News

Adrie Koster, now in charge of Willem II, pictured in 2011© Reuters

AZ boss Slot has a number of injury problems ahead of Sunday's fixture.

Dani De Wit, Bruno Martins Indi, Jonas Svensson, Jordy Clasie and Ron Vlaar are all out and the quintet will not all be back until the end of January.

Willem II head coach Koster, however, has a much kinder injury list to contend with.

Elton Kabangu is back in training after being out due to COVID-19, while Dries Saddiki is a doubt with injury.

Both have the potential to feature, however, and the rest of the squad is fully fit.

AZ possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Sugawara, Hatzidiakos, Letschert, Wijndal; Reijnders, Stengs, Koopmeiners; Aboukhal, Boadu, Karlsson

Willem II possible starting lineup:
Ruiter; Owusu, Heerkens, Peters, Kohn; Saglam, Van der Heijden, Ndayishimiye; Nunnely, Pavlidis, Kohlert


SM words green background

We say: AZ 2-1 Willem II

AZ are in great form and are clear favourites to beat struggling Willem II, especially at home. However, they do not have a habit of racking up big scorelines and could win by just a narrow margin.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ win with a probability of 63.74%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 15.71%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.75%), while for a Willem II win it was 0-1 (4.8%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: AZ vs Willem II

AZ
100%
Draw
0.0%
Willem II
0.0%
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7Fortuna SittardSittard115241213-117
8Go Ahead Eagles114341519-415
9NAC BredaNAC Breda115061218-615
10NECNijmegen114161610613
11Willem II113351111012
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