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Bundesliga | Gameweek 11
Oct 22, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
BayArena
Wolfsburg

B. Leverkusen
2 - 2
Wolfsburg

Diaby (17'), Frimpong (76')
Tah (49'), Andrich (80'), Fosu-Mensah (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Andrich (28' og.), Arnold (54' pen.)
Nmecha (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Frankfurt 5-1 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, October 15 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Wolfsburg

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Braunschweig 1-2 Wolfsburg
Tuesday, October 18 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Wolfsburg

 Amazingly, the side at home in this fixture have failed to win in the last 12 head-to-head's between the sides, and given Leverkusen's recent form, that looks unlikely to change. Also, eight of Leverkusen's 10 Bundesliga matches this season have seen three goals or more, but many have gone in at the wrong end for Bayer, so if Wolfsburg can capitalise on that, they should leave with something. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 61.91%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 17.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 1-0 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.25%), while for a Wolfsburg win it was 1-2 (4.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawWolfsburg
61.91% (-2.964 -2.96) 20.11% (0.799 0.8) 17.97% (2.165 2.17)
Both teams to score 57.83% (1.944 1.94)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.11% (0.29 0.29)37.88% (-0.291 -0.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.86% (0.309 0.31)60.14% (-0.309 -0.31)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.23% (-0.703 -0.7)11.77% (0.701 0.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.04% (-1.525 -1.53)36.95% (1.525 1.53)
Wolfsburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.54% (2.703 2.7)34.45% (-2.704 -2.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.83% (2.778 2.78)71.16% (-2.779 -2.78)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 61.91%
    Wolfsburg 17.97%
    Draw 20.11%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawWolfsburg
2-1 @ 9.89% (0.028 0.03)
2-0 @ 9.28% (-0.68 -0.68)
1-0 @ 8.68% (-0.375 -0.38)
3-1 @ 7.05% (-0.183 -0.18)
3-0 @ 6.62% (-0.689 -0.69)
4-1 @ 3.77% (-0.209 -0.21)
3-2 @ 3.76% (0.177 0.18)
4-0 @ 3.54% (-0.481 -0.48)
4-2 @ 2.01% (0.04 0.04)
5-1 @ 1.62% (-0.138 -0.14)
5-0 @ 1.52% (-0.256 -0.26)
Other @ 4.17%
Total : 61.91%
1-1 @ 9.25% (0.284 0.28)
2-2 @ 5.27% (0.387 0.39)
0-0 @ 4.06% (-0.057 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.34% (0.153 0.15)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 20.11%
1-2 @ 4.93% (0.49 0.49)
0-1 @ 4.32% (0.25 0.25)
0-2 @ 2.3% (0.287 0.29)
2-3 @ 1.87% (0.261 0.26)
1-3 @ 1.75% (0.286 0.29)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 17.97%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg

Bayer Leverkusen
66.1%
Draw
11.3%
Wolfsburg
22.6%
62
Head to Head
Mar 20, 2022 4.30pm
Wolfsburg
0-2
B. Leverkusen

Lacroix (83'), Vranckx (83')
Paulinho (86', 90+2')
Adli (9'), Demirbay (83'), Hincapie (83')
Oct 30, 2021 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen
0-2
Wolfsburg

Tah (28'), Alario (30'), Wirtz (54')
Nmecha (48'), Arnold (51')
Steffen (28'), Brooks (28')
Lacroix (90+5')
Jan 23, 2021 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen
0-1
Wolfsburg

Alario (90+2')
Baku (35')
Lacroix (90+3')
Sep 20, 2020 5pm
Wolfsburg
0-0
B. Leverkusen

Schlager (43')

Aranguiz (33'), Baumgartlinger (90+2')
May 26, 2020 7.30pm
B. Leverkusen
1-4
Wolfsburg
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern25194274235161
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen25158255302553
3Mainz 05Mainz25135742261644
4Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt25126751391242
5Freiburg2512583436-241
6RB Leipzig2510963933639
7Wolfsburg25108749391038
8Stuttgart2510784439537
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach25114103938137
10Borussia DortmundDortmund25105104539635
11Augsburg259882835-735
12Werder Bremen2596103849-1133
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2576122337-1427
14Hoffenheim2568113247-1526
15St Pauli2564151930-1122
16VfL BochumVfL Bochum2546152550-2518
17Holstein Kiel2545163761-2417
18Heidenheim2544172851-2316
> Bundesliga Full Table


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