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Bundesliga | Gameweek 11
Oct 22, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
BayArena
Wolfsburg

B. Leverkusen
2 - 2
Wolfsburg

Diaby (17'), Frimpong (76')
Tah (49'), Andrich (80'), Fosu-Mensah (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Andrich (28' og.), Arnold (54' pen.)
Nmecha (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Frankfurt 5-1 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, October 15 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Wolfsburg

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Braunschweig 1-2 Wolfsburg
Tuesday, October 18 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Wolfsburg

 Amazingly, the side at home in this fixture have failed to win in the last 12 head-to-head's between the sides, and given Leverkusen's recent form, that looks unlikely to change. Also, eight of Leverkusen's 10 Bundesliga matches this season have seen three goals or more, but many have gone in at the wrong end for Bayer, so if Wolfsburg can capitalise on that, they should leave with something. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 61.91%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 17.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 1-0 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.25%), while for a Wolfsburg win it was 1-2 (4.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawWolfsburg
61.91% (-2.964 -2.96) 20.11% (0.799 0.8) 17.97% (2.165 2.17)
Both teams to score 57.83% (1.944 1.94)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.11% (0.29 0.29)37.88% (-0.291 -0.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.86% (0.309 0.31)60.14% (-0.309 -0.31)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.23% (-0.703 -0.7)11.77% (0.701 0.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.04% (-1.525 -1.53)36.95% (1.525 1.53)
Wolfsburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.54% (2.703 2.7)34.45% (-2.704 -2.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.83% (2.778 2.78)71.16% (-2.779 -2.78)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 61.91%
    Wolfsburg 17.97%
    Draw 20.11%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawWolfsburg
2-1 @ 9.89% (0.028 0.03)
2-0 @ 9.28% (-0.68 -0.68)
1-0 @ 8.68% (-0.375 -0.38)
3-1 @ 7.05% (-0.183 -0.18)
3-0 @ 6.62% (-0.689 -0.69)
4-1 @ 3.77% (-0.209 -0.21)
3-2 @ 3.76% (0.177 0.18)
4-0 @ 3.54% (-0.481 -0.48)
4-2 @ 2.01% (0.04 0.04)
5-1 @ 1.62% (-0.138 -0.14)
5-0 @ 1.52% (-0.256 -0.26)
Other @ 4.17%
Total : 61.91%
1-1 @ 9.25% (0.284 0.28)
2-2 @ 5.27% (0.387 0.39)
0-0 @ 4.06% (-0.057 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.34% (0.153 0.15)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 20.11%
1-2 @ 4.93% (0.49 0.49)
0-1 @ 4.32% (0.25 0.25)
0-2 @ 2.3% (0.287 0.29)
2-3 @ 1.87% (0.261 0.26)
1-3 @ 1.75% (0.286 0.29)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 17.97%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg

Bayer Leverkusen
66.1%
Draw
11.3%
Wolfsburg
22.6%
62
Head to Head
Mar 20, 2022 4.30pm
Wolfsburg
0-2
B. Leverkusen

Lacroix (83'), Vranckx (83')
Paulinho (86', 90+2')
Adli (9'), Demirbay (83'), Hincapie (83')
Oct 30, 2021 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen
0-2
Wolfsburg

Tah (28'), Alario (30'), Wirtz (54')
Nmecha (48'), Arnold (51')
Steffen (28'), Brooks (28')
Lacroix (90+5')
Jan 23, 2021 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen
0-1
Wolfsburg

Alario (90+2')
Baku (35')
Lacroix (90+3')
Sep 20, 2020 5pm
Wolfsburg
0-0
B. Leverkusen

Schlager (43')

Aranguiz (33'), Baumgartlinger (90+2')
May 26, 2020 7.30pm
B. Leverkusen
1-4
Wolfsburg
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1483334201427
4RB Leipzig148332315827
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
9Werder Bremen146442224-222
10Wolfsburg146353125621
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim143561926-714
15St Pauli143291119-811
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1412111437-235
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243
> Bundesliga Full Table


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