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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 46.13%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 32.05% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.67%) and 0-1 (5.63%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 2-1 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
Result | ||
Hoffenheim | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
32.05% ( -1.16) | 21.82% ( -0.16) | 46.13% ( 1.32) |
Both teams to score 68.35% ( 0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
68.69% ( 0.3) | 31.31% ( -0.3) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
47.24% ( 0.35) | 52.75% ( -0.36) |
Hoffenheim Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.76% ( -0.46) | 20.23% ( 0.45) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.43% ( -0.73) | 52.56% ( 0.73) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.69% ( 0.57) | 14.31% ( -0.57) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.87% ( 1.1) | 42.12% ( -1.11) |
Score Analysis |
Hoffenheim | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
2-1 @ 7.19% ( -0.18) 1-0 @ 4.63% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 3.83% ( -0.15) 3-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 3.7% ( -0.17) 3-0 @ 1.97% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 1.53% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.05) 4-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.05% Total : 32.05% | 1-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 6.99% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 2.89% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.53% Total : 21.82% | 1-2 @ 8.74% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 5.67% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 5.63% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.47% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 4.53% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 3.55% ( 0.16) 1-4 @ 2.76% ( 0.14) 2-4 @ 2.2% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 1.73% ( 0.11) 3-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.03) 1-5 @ 1.07% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.62% Total : 46.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 13 | 34 | 36 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 32 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 27 |
5 | Mainz 05Mainz | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 25 |
6 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 25 |
7 | Werder Bremen | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 25 |
8 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 24 |
9 | Freiburg | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 24 |
10 | Stuttgart | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Wolfsburg | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 21 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 16 |
14 | St Pauli | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 14 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 14 |
16 | Heidenheim | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 8 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 35 | -22 | 6 |
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