Two sides that flirted with relegation towards the end of last season get their 2021-22 campaigns underway on Monday, as Cagliari host Spezia in Sardinia.
While the home side will hope to fare better under last term's saviour Leonardo Semplici, the visitors are seeking to build on a fine first season in Serie A despite losing their manager.
Match preview
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After the disappointments of the last four years, in which they have finished 14th or below, Cagliari kick off their new league campaign aiming to mount an assault on the top half of the table and avoid looking over their shoulders towards the relegation trapdoor.
While the Rossoblu have lost a major personality in midfield talisman Radja Nainggolan - who departed the club amid acrimony and accusations - they persuaded former Roma man Kevin Strootman to sign as his replacement, but little else has changed from the team that achieved salvation under head coach Leonardo Semplici.
The former SPAL boss lost only five of his 15 games in charge following his appointment in February - a vast improvement on a previous 16-match run without a win - and his pragmatic style was particularly rewarded with crucial wins over relegation rivals Parma and Europe-chasing Roma during the run-in.
Now, his side welcome Spezia to Sardinia looking to improve on a woeful opening day record in recent years; having won only one of their last eight Serie A openers, with the last coming as far back as 2013.
Leading the way in that pursuit will be club captain Joao Pedro, who rarely seems to capture headlines despite his quiet excellence over the last three years. The Isolani's number 10, who rarely features as an out-and-out striker, has racked up 41 league goals during that period - making him the Brazilian player to have scored the most times in Europe's top five leagues since 2018.
Part of a strong South American presence in the squad, Cagliari's skipper started in last week's comfortable Coppa Italia win over Pisa, when they lead by three goals at half-time and went on to record a 3-1 victory that puts them into December's second round. In the second of back-to-back home games at the start of the season, versus modest Spezia, they will expect to achieve a similar result.
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In their role as underdogs on their top-flight debut last year, it should come as no surprise that Spezia went unbeaten in their two encounters with Cagliari - a 2-2 away draw and a 2-1 win at the Picco in the reverse fixture - as they spent much of the season in the relative safety of lower mid-table.
Allied to several other excellent results - including their memorable victory over Scudetto challengers Milan - the Ligurian outfit were ultimately able to finish 15th; one place above Cagliari and six points clear of the drop.
Lauded head coach Vincenzo Italiano, however, has now departed the scene - taking the hot-seat at Fiorentina after Gennaro Gattuso's bizarre exit earlier this summer - so it could prove an even tougher task for former Inter and Barcelona midfielder Thiago Motta to replicate an historic 2020-21 campaign.
There has been much change in the playing staff too, as several players' loan contracts have expired and a number of veterans have been let go, so Motta - an inexperienced head coach, who failed in a brief spell at Genoa - has some significant rebuilding to do.
Angolan striker M'Bala Nzola - a revelation last year - scored nine of his 11 Serie A goals during the first half of the season before injuries intervened; including a stoppage-time equaliser against Cagliari last November. The powerful forward is apparently not favoured by his new manager, though, so the new-look attack which helped Spezia to a 3-1 Coppa Italia win over Pordenone last week will take on the islanders instead.
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Team News
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Though both Charalampos Lykogiannis and Razvan Marin trained separately from the rest of the Cagliari squad during the week - recovering from a calf injury and an ankle problem respectively - the pair should be available to Leonardo Semplici on Monday.
However, Paolo Farago and long-term absentee Marko Rog are ruled out, with versatile midfielder Nahitan Nandez's involvement also in doubt due to a possible move away.
Semplici is set to persist with the 3-4-2-1 setup which he used in the cup win last week, so Dalbert should make his league debut for the club at wing-back and star signing Kevin Strootman starts in the centre. Up front, Leonardo Pavoletti and Giovanni Simeone fight it out for the lone striker's role, with influential captain Joao Pedro starting in behind.
Spezia, meanwhile, have had preparations disrupted by the news that midfielder Leo Sena must sit out training for at least a month, after suffering complications following COVID-19 infection during pre-season.
Reserve goalkeeper Titas Krapikas and returning midfielder Alessandro Bordin are also sidelined, but Thiago Motta otherwise has his full squad ready to serve in Sardinia.
Samuel Mraz started up front in a 3-4-3 system against Pordenone, but Motta is known for his experimental methodology, so could well deploy a different setup this week. Certainly, Atalanta loanees Ebrima Colley and Viktor Kovalenko are expected to start, while Daniele Verde has signed a permanent deal and returns in attack.
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Ceppitelli, Godin, Carboni; Zappa, Marin, Strootman, Dalbert; Pedro, Pereiro; Pavoletti
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Zoet; Hristov, Nikolau, Erlic; Amian, Kovalenko, Maggiore, Bastoni; Verde, Mraz, Colley
We say: Cagliari 3-1 Spezia
Cagliari have been a totally different proposition under Leonardo Semplici, as a flaky defence and weak mentality improved immeasurably towards the end of last term.
They have kept the same squad together and meet first-day opponents who will take time to transition from their previously successful methods to those of their new boss. Therefore, the Isolani are prepared to pick Spezia off and take all three points on their opening night.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 44.71%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
