Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 42.29%. A win for Besiktas had a probability of 36.61% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.24%) and 2-3 (4.84%). The likeliest Besiktas win was 2-1 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.