MX23RW : Friday, April 11 15:01:08| >> :600:95931:95931:
PSG logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Sep 19, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade Municipal Georges Lefevre
Dortmund logo

PSG
2 - 0
Dortmund

Mbappe (49' pen.), Hakimi (58')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Schlotterbeck (66'), Can (67'), Ryerson (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: PSG 2-3 Nice
Friday, September 15 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Freiburg 2-4 Dortmund
Saturday, September 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Paris Saint-Germain 2-2 Borussia Dortmund

The Parc des Princes may have lost its fear factor in 2023, but PSG have still managed at least two goals in each of their last three contests, and a fired-up Mbappe can always be relied on to terrorise opposing defences. The anticipated returns of Ugarte and Marquinhos will also add a layer of steel to the Parisiens' XI, but Dortmund's in-form attackers should still have a glint in their eyes and can claim a point for their side in what promises to be a captivating clash. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 41.58%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 36.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.36%) and 3-1 (5.09%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
Paris Saint-GermainDrawBorussia Dortmund
41.58% (0.038000000000004 0.04) 22.13% (0.023 0.02) 36.28% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)
Both teams to score 68.61% (-0.108 -0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
68.45% (-0.13200000000001 -0.13)31.54% (0.132 0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.97% (-0.156 -0.16)53.03% (0.157 0.16)
Paris Saint-Germain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.95% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)16.05% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.59% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)45.41% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.73% (-0.086999999999989 -0.09)18.27% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.67% (-0.146 -0.15)49.33% (0.14700000000001 0.15)
Score Analysis
    Paris Saint-Germain 41.58%
    Borussia Dortmund 36.28%
    Draw 22.13%
Paris Saint-GermainDrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 8.34% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
1-0 @ 5.36% (0.031 0.03)
3-1 @ 5.09% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 4.91% (0.022 0.02)
3-2 @ 4.32% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.99% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.33% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.98% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.37% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-3 @ 1.12% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 3.77%
Total : 41.58%
1-1 @ 9.12% (0.028 0.03)
2-2 @ 7.09% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-0 @ 2.93% (0.021 0.02)
3-3 @ 2.45% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 22.13%
1-2 @ 7.75% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-1 @ 4.98% (0.022 0.02)
1-3 @ 4.39% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.24% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 4.02% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.4% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
1-4 @ 1.87% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.71% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-4 @ 1.04% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.02% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 36.28%

How you voted: PSG vs Dortmund

Paris Saint-Germain
Draw
Borussia Dortmund
Paris Saint-Germain
48.0%
Draw
28.0%
Borussia Dortmund
24.0%
254
Head to Head
Mar 11, 2020 8pm
Round of 16
PSG
2-0
Dortmund
Feb 18, 2020 8pm
Round of 16
Dortmund
2-1
PSG
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
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1Liverpool31227272304273
2Arsenal311711356263062
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest31176851371457
4Chelsea31158854371753
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle30165952391353
6Manchester CityMan City31157957401752
7Aston Villa3114984646051
8Fulham3113994742548
9Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton31121184947247
10Bournemouth311291051401145
11Crystal Palace30111093935443
12Brentford31126135147442
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd31108133741-438
14Tottenham HotspurSpurs311141658451337
15Everton31714103338-535
16West Ham UnitedWest Ham3198143552-1735
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves3195174359-1632
18Ipswich TownIpswich3148193165-3420
19Leicester CityLeicester3145222570-4517
20Southampton3124252374-5110


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