PSG3 - 1Lens
We said: Paris Saint-Germain 2-1 Lens
Saturday's showdown looks destined to be a tense and cagey encounter between two underperforming teams, but we expect PSG to flex their muscles and edge out Lens on home soil. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 47.15%. A win for Lens had a probability of 29.3% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.21%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Lens win was 1-2 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Lens |
47.15% ( -0.01) | 23.54% | 29.3% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 60.23% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.72% ( 0) | 41.28% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.32% ( 0) | 63.67% ( -0) |
| Paris Saint-Germain Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.25% ( -0) | 17.74% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 51.57% ( -0.01) | 48.42% ( 0.01) |
| Lens Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.22% ( 0.01) | 26.77% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.95% ( 0.01) | 62.05% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Lens |
| 2-1 @ 9.36% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.21% ( -0)2-0 @ 7.1% ( -0)3-1 @ 5.39% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.09% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.55% 4-1 @ 2.33% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.77% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.54% Other @ 3.79% Total : 47.15% | 1-1 @ 10.82% 2-2 @ 6.17% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.75% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.54% | 1-2 @ 7.13% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.26% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.13% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.13% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.71% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.81% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.03% ( 0)Other @ 3.1% Total : 29.3% |
How you voted: PSG vs Lens
Medina (66'), Sotoca (76'), Herrera (78'), Kehrer (89'), Marquinhos (90+1'), Verratti (90+4')
