We said: Real Sociedad 2-1 Benfica
There is an element of pressure on both teams to claim maximum points on Wednesday, with Real Sociedad seeking to secure top spot in Group D while Benfica must win to keep their top-two hopes alive.
Taking into account the previous meeting between these two sides, another closely-fought contest could be on the cards at the Reale Arena, but we are backing Alguacil's men to navigate their way to a slender success in front of their own fans.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 61.19%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 17.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.96%) and 0-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.82%), while for a Real Sociedad win it was 2-1 (4.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Real Sociedad would win this match.