Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 70.4%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 11.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.83%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.71%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (4.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia |
70.4% ( 0.23) | 18.33% ( -0.14) | 11.27% ( -0.09) |
Both teams to score 46.19% ( 0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.66% ( 0.39) | 44.33% ( -0.39) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.29% ( 0.38) | 66.71% ( -0.38) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.64% ( 0.17) | 11.36% ( -0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.93% ( 0.37) | 36.07% ( -0.37) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.11% ( 0.09) | 47.89% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.85% ( 0.07) | 83.15% ( -0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia |
2-0 @ 12.86% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 11.83% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 9.48% ( -0) 3-0 @ 9.33% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 5.07% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 3.74% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.21% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.48% Total : 70.39% | 1-1 @ 8.71% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 3.49% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.69% Total : 18.33% | 0-1 @ 4.01% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.58% Total : 11.27% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 23 | 21 |
2 | Porto | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 18 |
3 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 16 |
4 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
5 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 12 |
7 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
9 | Casa Pia | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
11 | AVS | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 6 |
14 | AroucaArouca | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 6 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
17 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 5 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 0 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |