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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 50.97%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Burnley | Draw | Derby County |
50.97% (![]() | 24.31% (![]() | 24.72% (![]() |
Both teams to score 53.7% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.89% (![]() | 48.11% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.73% (![]() | 70.27% (![]() |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.12% (![]() | 18.88% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.64% (![]() | 50.36% (![]() |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.19% (![]() | 33.81% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.53% (![]() | 70.47% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Burnley | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 10.64% (![]() 2-1 @ 9.62% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 8.87% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 5.34% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 4.93% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.9% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 2.23% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 2.05% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.21% ( ![]() Other @ 3.18% Total : 50.97% | 1-1 @ 11.54% (![]() 0-0 @ 6.38% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 5.22% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.05% ( ![]() Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.32% | 0-1 @ 6.92% (![]() 1-2 @ 6.26% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 3.75% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 2.26% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.89% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 1.36% ( ![]() Other @ 2.28% Total : 24.72% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 36 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 72 | 23 | 49 | 76 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 36 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 51 | 27 | 24 | 76 |
3 | Burnley | 36 | 20 | 14 | 2 | 49 | 10 | 39 | 74 |
4 | Sunderland | 36 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 54 | 33 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Coventry CityCoventry | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 56 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 36 | 13 | 16 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 55 |
7 | Bristol City | 36 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 46 | 39 | 7 | 53 |
8 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 36 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 37 | 4 | 52 |
9 | Middlesbrough | 36 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 50 |
10 | Norwich CityNorwich | 36 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 49 |
11 | Watford | 36 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 49 |
12 | Millwall | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 48 |
13 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 48 |
14 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 36 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 44 |
15 | Swansea CitySwansea | 36 | 12 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 44 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 36 | 9 | 16 | 11 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 43 |
17 | Portsmouth | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 42 |
18 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 36 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 39 |
19 | Hull City | 36 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 37 |
20 | Stoke CityStoke | 36 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 36 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 36 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 39 | 59 | -20 | 36 |
22 | Derby CountyDerby | 36 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 32 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 36 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 32 | 59 | -27 | 31 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 36 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 30 |
> Championship Full Table |