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Championship | Gameweek 20
Dec 10, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Turf Moor
Derby logo

Burnley
0 - 0
Derby


Brownhill (80')
FT

Ward (48'), Widell Zetterstrom (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship clash between Burnley and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Burnley 1-1 Middlesbrough
Friday, December 6 at 8pm in Championship
Last Game: Leeds 2-0 Derby
Saturday, December 7 at 12.30pm in Championship

We said: Burnley 2-0 Derby County

Burnley are undoubtedly the favourites heading into this match, with the home advantage and better form on their side, leading us to believe they will secure a commanding victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 50.97%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.

Result
BurnleyDrawDerby County
50.97% (-1.056 -1.06) 24.31% (0.145 0.15) 24.72% (0.911 0.91)
Both teams to score 53.7% (0.53 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.89% (0.22600000000001 0.23)48.11% (-0.22600000000001 -0.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.73% (0.207 0.21)70.27% (-0.208 -0.21)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.12% (-0.325 -0.33)18.88% (0.323 0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.64% (-0.54499999999999 -0.54)50.36% (0.54499999999999 0.54)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.19% (0.914 0.91)33.81% (-0.915 -0.91)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.53% (0.981 0.98)70.47% (-0.982 -0.98)
Score Analysis
    Burnley 50.97%
    Derby County 24.72%
    Draw 24.32%
BurnleyDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 10.64% (-0.21 -0.21)
2-1 @ 9.62% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
2-0 @ 8.87% (-0.271 -0.27)
3-1 @ 5.34% (-0.084 -0.08)
3-0 @ 4.93% (-0.203 -0.2)
3-2 @ 2.9% (0.027 0.03)
4-1 @ 2.23% (-0.059 -0.06)
4-0 @ 2.05% (-0.107 -0.11)
4-2 @ 1.21% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.18%
Total : 50.97%
1-1 @ 11.54% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
0-0 @ 6.38% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-2 @ 5.22% (0.103 0.1)
3-3 @ 1.05% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 24.32%
0-1 @ 6.92% (0.107 0.11)
1-2 @ 6.26% (0.186 0.19)
0-2 @ 3.75% (0.149 0.15)
1-3 @ 2.26% (0.121 0.12)
2-3 @ 1.89% (0.082 0.08)
0-3 @ 1.36% (0.086 0.09)
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 24.72%

How you voted: Burnley vs Derby

Burnley
80.7%
Draw
11.9%
Derby County
7.3%
109
Head to Head
Jan 25, 2016 7.45pm
Burnley
4-1
Derby
Keogh (29' og.), Gray (54' pen.), Vokes (58' pen.), Arfield (66')
Butterfield (30')
Shackell (57'), Johnson (68')
Sep 21, 2015 7.45pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds28178353193459
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd28186440182258
3Burnley28151123692756
4Sunderland28159440221854
5Middlesbrough28128846341244
6Blackburn RoversBlackburn28126103126542
7West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom2891453324941
8Watford28125113939041
9Bristol City2891183533238
10Queens Park RangersQPR2891183235-338
11Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds28108104045-538
12Norwich CityNorwich2899104341236
13Coventry CityCoventry2898113737035
14Oxford UnitedOxford Utd2898113343-1035
15Swansea CitySwansea2897123135-434
16Preston North EndPreston2871383035-534
17Millwall27710102626031
18Portsmouth2778123546-1129
19Stoke CityStoke28610122636-1028
20Cardiff CityCardiff28610123143-1228
21Derby CountyDerby2876153138-727
22Hull City2868142738-1126
23Luton TownLuton2875162947-1826
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth2849152560-3521


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