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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 50.97%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Burnley | Draw | Derby County |
50.97% ( -1.06) | 24.31% ( 0.15) | 24.72% ( 0.91) |
Both teams to score 53.7% ( 0.53) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.89% ( 0.23) | 48.11% ( -0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.73% ( 0.21) | 70.27% ( -0.21) |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.12% ( -0.33) | 18.88% ( 0.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.64% ( -0.54) | 50.36% ( 0.54) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.19% ( 0.91) | 33.81% ( -0.91) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.53% ( 0.98) | 70.47% ( -0.98) |
Score Analysis |
Burnley | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 10.64% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 8.87% ( -0.27) 3-1 @ 5.34% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.23% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.05% ( -0.11) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0) Other @ 3.18% Total : 50.97% | 1-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.32% | 0-1 @ 6.92% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 6.26% ( 0.19) 0-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.15) 1-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.28% Total : 24.72% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 28 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 59 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 58 |
3 | Burnley | 28 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 56 |
4 | Sunderland | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 40 | 22 | 18 | 54 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 44 |
6 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 42 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 28 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 41 |
8 | Watford | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 41 |
9 | Bristol City | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 35 | 33 | 2 | 38 |
10 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 38 |
11 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 38 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 36 |
13 | Coventry CityCoventry | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 35 |
14 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 35 |
15 | Swansea CitySwansea | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 34 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 28 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 34 |
17 | Millwall | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 31 |
18 | Portsmouth | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 29 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 28 |
20 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 28 |
21 | Derby CountyDerby | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 27 |
22 | Hull City | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 26 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 26 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 28 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 25 | 60 | -35 | 21 |
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