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Championship | Gameweek 23
Dec 17, 2022 at 3pm UK
Turf Moor
Middlesbrough logo

Burnley
3 - 1
Middlesbrough

Benson (60', 67'), Howson (72' og.)
Cork (75')
Roberts (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Watmore (49')
Steffen (57'), Lenihan (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Burnley and Middlesbrough, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: QPR 0-3 Burnley
Sunday, December 11 at 1pm in Championship

We said: Burnley 2-0 Middlesbrough

Burnley are a few more good results away from creating a significant gap between themselves and the rest of the Championship, with those inside the Clarets camp insisting they have an extra gear to go into as the season reaches the midway point. Middlesbrough will definitely fancy their chances of competing for a playoff position this campaign but will struggle to leave Turf Moor with anything to show for their efforts in terms of points on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 58.88%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 19.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for a Middlesbrough win it was 0-1 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.

Result
BurnleyDrawMiddlesbrough
58.88% (-0.182 -0.18) 22.08% (0.296 0.3) 19.04% (-0.115 -0.12)
Both teams to score 53.07% (-1.186 -1.19)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.87% (-1.478 -1.48)45.13% (1.475 1.48)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.52% (-1.431 -1.43)67.48% (1.429 1.43)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.01% (-0.551 -0.55)14.98% (0.549 0.55)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.57% (-1.055 -1.06)43.43% (1.054 1.05)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.42% (-0.985 -0.98)37.58% (0.983 0.98)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.64% (-0.975 -0.98)74.36% (0.973 0.97)
Score Analysis
    Burnley 58.87%
    Middlesbrough 19.04%
    Draw 22.08%
BurnleyDrawMiddlesbrough
1-0 @ 10.68% (0.46 0.46)
2-0 @ 10.14% (0.246 0.25)
2-1 @ 9.93% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
3-0 @ 6.42% (0.034 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.28% (-0.136 -0.14)
3-2 @ 3.07% (-0.152 -0.15)
4-0 @ 3.05% (-0.043 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.98% (-0.125 -0.13)
4-2 @ 1.46% (-0.102 -0.1)
5-0 @ 1.16% (-0.04 -0.04)
5-1 @ 1.13% (-0.07 -0.07)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 58.87%
1-1 @ 10.46% (0.19 0.19)
0-0 @ 5.63% (0.348 0.35)
2-2 @ 4.86% (-0.141 -0.14)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.078 -0.08)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 22.08%
0-1 @ 5.51% (0.201 0.2)
1-2 @ 5.12% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
0-2 @ 2.7% (0.028 0.03)
1-3 @ 1.67% (-0.061 -0.06)
2-3 @ 1.59% (-0.09 -0.09)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 19.04%

How you voted: Burnley vs Middlesbrough

Burnley
81.6%
Draw
7.9%
Middlesbrough
10.5%
76
Head to Head
Apr 8, 2017 3pm
Dec 26, 2016 3pm
Burnley
1-0
Middlesbrough
Gray (80')
Boyd (21'), Mee (42'), Flanagan (54'), Ward (66'), Gray (73'), Hendrick (85')

de Roon (2'), Ramirez (31'), Barragan (45'), Da Silva (80'), Negredo (90')
Apr 19, 2016 7.45pm
Jan 9, 2016 3pm
Third Round
Middlesbrough
1-2
Burnley
Fabbrini (36')
Forshaw (20'), Friend (38')
Hennings (45'), Ward (71')
Barton (83')
Dec 15, 2015 7.45pm
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1610422191232
2Sunderland1594225111431
3Burnley168621961330
4Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
5Middlesbrough1683529191027
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom166821811726
7Watford168262524126
8Millwall156541813523
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City165742020022
11Derby CountyDerby165562020020
12Stoke CityStoke165561920-120
13Norwich CityNorwich164752524119
14Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds165471826-819
16Luton TownLuton165381826-818
17Coventry CityCoventry164572223-117
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd164571924-517
19Plymouth ArgylePlymouth164571728-1117
20Preston North EndPreston163761624-816
21Cardiff CityCardiff164481524-916
22Hull City163671621-515
23Portsmouth152671628-1212
24Queens Park RangersQPR161871326-1311


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