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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 66.96%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Rotherham United had a probability of 12.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.25%) and 2-1 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.61%), while for a Rotherham United win it was 0-1 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
Result | ||
Burnley | Draw | Rotherham United |
66.96% ( 4.37) | 20.41% ( -1.59) | 12.63% ( -2.78) |
Both teams to score 43.88% ( -2.23) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.18% ( 0.87) | 49.82% ( -0.87) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.18% ( 0.77) | 71.82% ( -0.77) |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.02% ( 1.67) | 13.98% ( -1.67) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.52% ( 3.19) | 41.48% ( -3.19) |
Rotherham United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.01% ( -3.65) | 48.99% ( 3.66) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.05% ( -2.75) | 83.95% ( 2.75) |
Score Analysis |
Burnley | Draw | Rotherham United |
1-0 @ 13.47% ( 0.32) 2-0 @ 13.25% ( 1.05) 2-1 @ 9.46% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 8.7% ( 1.15) 3-1 @ 6.21% ( 0.24) 4-0 @ 4.28% ( 0.78) 4-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.28) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.15) 5-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.39) 5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.18) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.35% Total : 66.95% | 1-1 @ 9.61% ( -0.79) 0-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 3.38% ( -0.44) Other @ 0.58% Total : 20.41% | 0-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.73) 1-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.69) 0-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.48) Other @ 2.57% Total : 12.63% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sunderland | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 31 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 29 |
4 | Burnley | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 27 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 25 |
6 | Watford | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 25 |
7 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 24 |
8 | Millwall | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 23 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 22 |
11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 19 |
12 | Derby CountyDerby | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 19 |
13 | Stoke CityStoke | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 19 |
14 | Norwich CityNorwich | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 18 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 18 |
16 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 17 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 16 |
18 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 16 |
19 | Hull City | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 15 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 15 |
21 | Luton TownLuton | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
22 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 10 |
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