Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Sunderland had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Sunderland win was 0-1 (10.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Sunderland would win this match.