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Championship | Gameweek 15
Nov 9, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Riverside Stadium
Luton Town

Middlesbrough
5 - 1
Luton

Burgzorg (30', 54'), Latte Lath (43'), Azaz (51', 87')
Burgzorg (31')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Clark (77')
Baptiste (15'), Hashioka (49'), Clark (62'), Morris (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Middlesbrough and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: QPR 1-4 Middlesbrough
Tuesday, November 5 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Luton 1-0 Cardiff
Wednesday, November 6 at 8pm in Championship

We said: Middlesbrough 1-1 Luton Town

With Boro having finally hit the goal trail in midweek, they will be confident on building on that performance. However, Luton may have finally turned the corner, leading us to predict a hard-fought draw for the Hatters this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 56.15%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 21.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.

Result
MiddlesbroughDrawLuton Town
56.15% (0.038000000000004 0.04) 22.67% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02) 21.18% (-0.016000000000002 -0.02)
Both teams to score 54.58% (0.044000000000004 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.19% (0.073 0.07)44.81% (-0.073 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.83% (0.071000000000005 0.07)67.16% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.22% (0.037999999999997 0.04)15.78% (-0.038 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.09% (0.07 0.07)44.91% (-0.07 -0.07)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.81% (0.024000000000001 0.02)35.19% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.05% (0.026 0.03)71.94% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Middlesbrough 56.14%
    Luton Town 21.18%
    Draw 22.67%
MiddlesbroughDrawLuton Town
1-0 @ 10.25% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.89% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 9.47% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6.09% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.83% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-2 @ 3.18% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.81% (0.008 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.69% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.47% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.04% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
5-0 @ 0.99% (0.003 0)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 56.14%
1-1 @ 10.7% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.55% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.16% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-3 @ 1.11% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 22.67%
0-1 @ 5.8% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
1-2 @ 5.59% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 3.03% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-3 @ 1.95% (0.0010000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.8% (0.0029999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 1.05% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 21.18%

How you voted: Middlesbrough vs Luton

Middlesbrough
75.7%
Draw
13.5%
Luton Town
10.8%
37
Head to Head
Apr 24, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 44
Luton
2-1
Middlesbrough
Lockyer (49'), Morris (67' pen.)
Archer (40')
Dec 10, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 22
Middlesbrough
2-1
Luton
Akpom (38'), Crooks (90+1')
Clark (33')
Mar 5, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 36
Middlesbrough
2-1
Luton
McNair (17' pen.), Watmore (87')
Lumley (90+1'), Coburn (90+3')
Cornick (90+6')
Jerome (20'), Hylton (50'), Lansbury (61')
Nov 2, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Luton
3-1
Middlesbrough
Bradley (57'), Adebayo (60'), Cornick (62')
Potts (30'), Bree (31'), Onyedinma (70'), Lansbury (79')
Coburn (15')
Crooks (39'), Coburn (59'), Watmore (74')
May 1, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 45
Luton
1-1
Middlesbrough
Rea (19')
Rea (75')
Watmore (21')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1812422591638
2Burnley1910722471737
3Leeds UnitedLeeds18105331131835
4Sunderland1896326131333
5Middlesbrough1994633221131
6Watford189362624230
7West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom1861021912728
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn178452117428
9Norwich CityNorwich186753527825
10Millwall176742015525
11Bristol City186752421325
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds187472227-525
13Swansea CitySwansea186571817123
14Stoke CityStoke185671922-321
15Derby CountyDerby185582224-220
16Coventry CityCoventry184682427-318
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd184682028-818
18Preston North EndPreston183961725-818
19Luton TownLuton1853102033-1318
20Cardiff CityCardiff184591728-1117
21Plymouth ArgylePlymouth184591838-2017
22Hull City183691726-915
23Queens Park RangersQPR182971526-1115
24Portsmouth162771830-1213


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