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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 56.15%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 21.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
Result | ||
Middlesbrough | Draw | Luton Town |
56.15% ( 0.04) | 22.67% ( -0.02) | 21.18% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 54.58% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.19% ( 0.07) | 44.81% ( -0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.83% ( 0.07) | 67.16% ( -0.07) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.22% ( 0.04) | 15.78% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.09% ( 0.07) | 44.91% ( -0.07) |
Luton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.81% ( 0.02) | 35.19% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.05% ( 0.03) | 71.94% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Middlesbrough | Draw | Luton Town |
1-0 @ 10.25% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.89% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.47% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.83% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.69% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.45% Total : 56.14% | 1-1 @ 10.7% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.16% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.67% | 0-1 @ 5.8% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.59% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.03% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.95% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 1.96% Total : 21.18% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 16 | 38 |
2 | Burnley | 19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 37 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 35 |
4 | Sunderland | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 33 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 31 |
6 | Watford | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 30 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 28 |
8 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 28 |
9 | Norwich CityNorwich | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 27 | 8 | 25 |
10 | Millwall | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 25 |
11 | Bristol City | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 25 |
12 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 25 |
13 | Swansea CitySwansea | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 23 |
14 | Stoke CityStoke | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Derby CountyDerby | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 |
16 | Coventry CityCoventry | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 18 |
17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Preston North EndPreston | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
20 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 17 |
22 | Hull City | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
23 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
24 | Portsmouth | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 30 | -12 | 13 |
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