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Championship | Gameweek 31
Feb 8, 2025 at 3pm UK
Carrow Road
Derby logo

Norwich
1 - 1
Derby

Sargent (68')
Fisher (30'), Doyle (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Yates (89' pen.)
Adams (27'), Phillips (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Norwich City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Watford 0-1 Norwich
Saturday, February 1 at 12.30pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 0-1 Sheff Utd
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Norwich City 2-0 Derby County

Norwich City head into Saturday's clash off the back of securing victories over Swansea and Watford in their last two outings and will be backing themselves to keep the juggernaut rolling against an out-of-sorts Derby County side. The Rams' form is currently nothing to write home about and we see them struggling at Carrow Road this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 52.06%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 24.45% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (6.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.

Result
Norwich CityDrawDerby County
52.06% (0.127 0.13) 23.5% (-0.209 -0.21) 24.45% (0.085000000000001 0.09)
Both teams to score 56.07% (0.783 0.78)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.17% (0.997 1)44.83% (-0.995 -0.99)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.81% (0.953 0.95)67.19% (-0.952 -0.95)
Norwich City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.77% (0.416 0.42)17.23% (-0.414 -0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.47% (0.728 0.73)47.53% (-0.726 -0.73)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.74% (0.61199999999999 0.61)32.26% (-0.61 -0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.25% (0.688 0.69)68.75% (-0.68600000000001 -0.69)
Score Analysis
    Norwich City 52.06%
    Derby County 24.45%
    Draw 23.49%
Norwich CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.77% (-0.286 -0.29)
2-1 @ 9.72% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.59% (-0.132 -0.13)
3-1 @ 5.7% (0.085 0.09)
3-0 @ 5.04% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.22% (0.101 0.1)
4-1 @ 2.51% (0.071 0.07)
4-0 @ 2.22% (0.027 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.42% (0.062 0.06)
Other @ 3.87%
Total : 52.06%
1-1 @ 11.05% (-0.14 -0.14)
0-0 @ 5.56% (-0.242 -0.24)
2-2 @ 5.5% (0.099 0.1)
3-3 @ 1.22% (0.058 0.06)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 23.49%
0-1 @ 6.29% (-0.165 -0.17)
1-2 @ 6.26% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.56% (-0.033 -0.03)
1-3 @ 2.36% (0.049 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.07% (0.071 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.34% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 24.45%

How you voted: Norwich vs Derby

Norwich City
90.2%
Draw
7.8%
Derby County
2.0%
51
Head to Head
Sep 28, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 7
Derby
2-3
Norwich
Forsyth (60'), Taylor (90+1')
Forsyth (21'), Chirewa (77'), Goudmijn (79')
Sainz (45+3', 65', 87')
Duffy (24'), Cordoba (90+5')
Apr 10, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 41
Derby
0-1
Norwich

Shinnie (11'), Bird (15'), Forsyth (20'), Roberts (68')
Dowell (21')
Oct 3, 2020 12.30pm
Gameweek 4
Norwich
0-1
Derby

Buendia (44'), Zimmermann (54'), Rupp (86')
Rooney (87')
Shinnie (79'), Knight (79')
Dec 29, 2018 3pm
Gameweek 25
Norwich
3-4
Derby
Godfrey (25'), Pukki (31', 81')
Zimmermann (5'), Aarons (45'), Vrancic (62')
Tomori (36'), Mount (45'), Jozefzoon (87'), Marriott (90')
Evans (66'), Holmes (90'), Wilson (90')
Oct 3, 2018 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Derby
1-1
Norwich
Bryson (86')
Bogle (62')
Klose (69')
Zimmermann (45'), Lewis (54')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds362210472234976
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd36246651272476
3Burnley362014249103974
4Sunderland361911654332168
5Coventry CityCoventry36168125246656
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom361316746321455
7Bristol City36131494639753
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn36157144137452
9Middlesbrough36148145547850
10Norwich CityNorwich361213115749849
11Watford36147154650-449
12Millwall361212123637-148
13Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds36139145056-648
14Queens Park RangersQPR361111144146-544
15Swansea CitySwansea36128163846-844
16Preston North EndPreston36916113642-643
17Portsmouth36119164457-1342
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd36912153753-1639
19Hull City36910173645-937
20Stoke CityStoke36812163650-1436
21Cardiff CityCardiff36812163959-2036
22Derby CountyDerby3688203549-1432
23Luton TownLuton3687213259-2731
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth36612183673-3730


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