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Copa Libertadores WWW header

Copa Libertadores
Flamengo
Copa Libertadores | Final
Oct 29, 2022 at 9pm UK
Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha
Athletico Paranaense

Flamengo
1 - 0
Athletico PR

Barbosa (45+4')
De Arrascaeta (68'), Vidal (75')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Henrique (28'), Santana (43'), Cardoso (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Copa Libertadores clash between Flamengo and Athletico Paranaense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Flamengo

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Flamengo 3-2 Santos
Wednesday, October 26 at 1.45am in Brasileiro

Athletico Paranaense

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Athletico PR 1-3 Palmeiras
Wednesday, October 26 at 1.45am in Brasileiro

We said: Flamengo 2-1 Athletico Paranaense

 Although we expect Saturday's final to be a closely-fought contest, we think Flamengo's recent experience of reaching the latter stages of the Copa Libertadores will help beat Athletico PR. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 61.29%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 16.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.76%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.58%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Flamengo in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Flamengo.

Result
FlamengoDrawAthletico Paranaense
61.29% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02) 22.32% (0.0030000000000001 0) 16.4% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Both teams to score 47.28% (0.036000000000001 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.73% (0.024999999999999 0.02)50.27% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.78% (0.023 0.02)72.22% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)
Flamengo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.07%15.93%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.8% (0.0019999999999953 0)45.2% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Athletico Paranaense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.24% (0.042999999999999 0.04)43.76% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.07% (0.035 0.04)79.93% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Flamengo 61.28%
    Athletico Paranaense 16.4%
    Draw 22.32%
FlamengoDrawAthletico Paranaense
1-0 @ 12.8% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 11.76% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.72% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-0 @ 7.2% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.95% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-0 @ 3.31% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 2.73% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 2.46% (0.0030000000000001 0)
5-0 @ 1.22% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.13% (0.0010000000000001 0)
5-1 @ 1%
Other @ 2%
Total : 61.28%
1-1 @ 10.58%
0-0 @ 6.97% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.02% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Other @ 0.75%
Total : 22.32%
0-1 @ 5.76% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-2 @ 4.37% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
0-2 @ 2.38% (0.0029999999999997 0)
1-3 @ 1.21% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.11% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 1.57%
Total : 16.4%

How you voted: Flamengo vs Athletico PR

Flamengo
82.1%
Draw
10.7%
Athletico Paranaense
7.1%
28
Head to Head
Aug 18, 2022 1.30am
Athletico PR
0-1
Flamengo

Terans (23'), Fernandinho (78'), Moura (79'), Henrique (90+2')
Pedro (57')
Gomes (29')
Aug 14, 2022 8pm
Flamengo
5-0
Athletico PR
Bruno (56', 59'), Lucas (63'), Lazaro (72'), Pedro (90+2')
Pablo (43'), Souza (44'), Maia (49')

Bueno (54'), Santana (66')
Jul 28, 2022 1.30am
Flamengo
0-0
Athletico PR

Barbosa (41'), Maia (87'), De Arrascaeta (90+1'), Pereira (90+6')
Luiz (90+7')

Bento (23'), Erick (38'), Fernandinho (41'), Cittadini (86'), Felipe (90+6')
Apr 23, 2022 8.30pm
Athletico PR
1-0
Flamengo
Terans (32' pen.)
Felipe (41'), Manuel Orejuela (49'), Christian (85'), Halter (87')

Pablo (55'), Marinho (70')
Nov 2, 2021 7pm
Athletico PR
2-2
Flamengo
Kayzer (63'), Bissoli (90+5')
Terans (5'), Heleno (21'), Kayzer (35'), Hernandez (70')
Barbosa (17', 29')
Pereira (27'), Pereira (76')
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