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Copa Libertadores
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 18, 2022 at 11pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
2 - 3
Velez Sarsfield

Zabala (21'), Gigliotti (89' pen.)
Rodriguez (15'), Laborda (80')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Janson (45'), de los Santos (60'), Perrone (90+4')
Garayalde (33'), de los Santos (51'), Sonora (82'), Bouzat (82'), Perrone (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Nacional and Velez Sarsfield, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

Last Six:
Last Game: Danubio 2-1 Nacional
Sunday, June 5 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Next Game: Nacional vs. Union
Tuesday, June 28 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana

Velez Sarsfield

Last Six:
Last Game: Patronato 1-1 Velez Sarsfield
Saturday, June 4 at 11pm in Argentine Primera Division
Next Game: Velez Sarsfield vs. Platense
Sunday, June 12 at 10pm in Argentine Primera Division

We said: Nacional 2-1 Velez Sarsfield

 A draw in this one would be of no good to either side, so we expect both teams to go in search of all three points. That said, we are also backing the home team to narrowly edge out their visitors and emerge triumphant come the sound of the final whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 36.52%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 35.5% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.81%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (11.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawVelez Sarsfield
35.5% (0.0019999999999953 0) 27.98% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01) 36.52% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Both teams to score 47.86% (0.019999999999996 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.83% (0.022000000000006 0.02)58.17% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.18% (0.018999999999998 0.02)78.82% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.86% (0.012 0.01)31.14% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.53% (0.015000000000001 0.02)67.47% (-0.01400000000001 -0.01)
Velez Sarsfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.5% (0.015000000000001 0.02)30.5% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.29% (0.018000000000001 0.02)66.71% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 35.49%
    Velez Sarsfield 36.51%
    Draw 27.97%
NacionalDrawVelez Sarsfield
1-0 @ 11.07% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 7.68% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 6.46% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-1 @ 2.99% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 2.51%
3-2 @ 1.77% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.01%
Total : 35.49%
1-1 @ 13.15%
0-0 @ 9.5% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.56% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 27.97%
0-1 @ 11.27% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 7.81% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-2 @ 6.7%
1-3 @ 3.09% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 2.65% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.8% (0.002 0)
1-4 @ 0.92% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 36.51%

How you voted: Nacional vs Velez Sarsfield

Nacional
85.7%
Draw
9.5%
Velez Sarsfield
4.8%
21
Head to Head
Apr 26, 2022 11.15pm
Velez Sarsfield
1-2
Nacional
Sonora (15')
Insua (45+3'), Gomez (90+2')
Florentin (18')
Gigliotti (31', 75')
Rochet (24'), Coelho (43'), Luis Rodriguez (59'), Candido (61'), Marichal (86'), Ocampo (90+7')
rhs 2.0
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