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Coppa Italia | Second Round
Oct 19, 2022 at 5pm UK
Stadio Ennio Tardini

Parma
1 - 0
Bari

Benedyczak (29')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Botta (42'), Vicari (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Coppa Italia clash between Bari and Parma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Parma

All competitions
Coppa Italia
Last Game: Parma 2-0 Reggina
Saturday, October 15 at 1pm in Serie B

Bari

All competitions
Coppa Italia
Last Game: Bari 0-2 Ascoli
Saturday, October 15 at 3.15pm in Serie B

We said: Parma 1-2 Bari

 Like the first league game of the season, we would expect this to be a close game, with fine margins between the two sides. However, with the injuries on the Parma side, the slight edge could go to Bari. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 44.84%. A win for Bari had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Parma in this match.

Result
ParmaDrawBari
44.84% (0.080000000000005 0.08) 26.59% (-0.00099999999999767 -0) 28.56% (-0.077000000000002 -0.08)
Both teams to score 49.83% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.32% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)54.68% (0.029000000000003 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24% (-0.020999999999997 -0.02)76% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Parma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.72% (0.028999999999996 0.03)24.28% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.35% (0.039000000000001 0.04)58.65% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Bari Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.8% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)34.2% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.1% (-0.080000000000002 -0.08)70.9% (0.082000000000008 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Parma 44.84%
    Bari 28.56%
    Draw 26.59%
ParmaDrawBari
1-0 @ 11.75% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 8.93% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.32% (0.022 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.21% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.93% (0.013 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.26% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.49% (0.004 0)
4-0 @ 1.39% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 44.84%
1-1 @ 12.61%
0-0 @ 8.3% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.79% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 26.59%
0-1 @ 8.91% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
1-2 @ 6.77% (-0.014 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.78% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.42% (-0.01 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.71% (-0.006 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.71% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 28.56%

How you voted: Bari vs Parma

Bari
38.6%
Draw
29.5%
Parma
31.8%
44
Head to Head
Aug 12, 2022 7.45pm
Parma
2-2
Bari
Man (3'), Mihaila (45+1')
Estevez (8'), Valenti (38'), Mihaila (45+2'), Bernabe (54'), Del Prato (90')
Antenucci (11' pen.), Folorunsho (35')
Terranova (3'), Cheddira (38'), Mallamo (79')
May 12, 2018 2pm
Parma
1-0
Bari
Gagliolo (59')
Sierralta (20'), Gagliolo (66')

Basha (37'), Marrone (50'), Sabelli (55'), Gyomber (84')
Empereur (84')
Dec 21, 2017 7.30pm
Bari
0-0
Parma

Petriccione (30'), Tonucci (42'), Cassani (65'), Sabelli (66')

Scavone (33'), Scozzarella (84')
Aug 6, 2017 8.15pm
Bari
2-1
Parma
Galano (36', 90')
Calaio (3' pen.)
rhs 2.0
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