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Cheltenham Town
EFL Cup | First Round
Aug 8, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Jonny-Rocks Stadium
Birmingham logo

Cheltenham
0 - 2
Birmingham


Davies (31'), Southwood (63'), Chapman (71'), Freestone (75')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Bacuna (24', 32')
Bacuna (43'), James (63')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Cheltenham Town and Birmingham City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Shrewsbury 1-0 Cheltenham
Saturday, August 5 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Swansea 1-1 Birmingham
Saturday, August 5 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Cheltenham Town 1-2 Birmingham City

Cheltenham were unsuccessful during their opening game of the League One season, but an unbeaten home record since February will be hard for Birmingham to break. Blues travel to face the Robins for the second time in less than a month, and we believe Eustace's men will have enough quality in their squad on the night to book a place in round two. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 51.09%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 25.15% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.67%) and 0-2 (8.47%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.

Result
Cheltenham TownDrawBirmingham City
25.15% (-0.012 -0.01) 23.76% (-0.0040000000000013 -0) 51.09% (0.012 0.01)
Both teams to score 55.96% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.67% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)45.32% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.34% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)67.66% (-0.0080000000000098 -0.01)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.06% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)31.94% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.61% (-0.004999999999999 -0)68.39% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Birmingham City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.22% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)17.77% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.52% (0.014000000000003 0.01)48.48% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Cheltenham Town 25.15%
    Birmingham City 51.09%
    Draw 23.76%
Cheltenham TownDrawBirmingham City
1-0 @ 6.48% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-1 @ 6.39% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-0 @ 3.7% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-1 @ 2.43% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 2.1%
3-0 @ 1.41% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 25.15%
1-1 @ 11.19%
0-0 @ 5.68% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-2 @ 5.52%
3-3 @ 1.21% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 23.76%
0-1 @ 9.81% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
1-2 @ 9.67% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 8.47% (0.0020000000000007 0)
1-3 @ 5.57% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 4.88% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-3 @ 3.18% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 2.4% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-4 @ 2.11% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-4 @ 1.37% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 51.09%

How you voted: Cheltenham vs Birmingham

Cheltenham Town
27.3%
Draw
9.1%
Birmingham City
63.6%
11
Head to Head
Jul 22, 2023 3pm
Club Friendlies
Cheltenham
2-3
Birmingham
Chapman (16'), Lloyd (31')
Anderson (25'), James (35'), Bacuna (41')
Jul 19, 2022 7.45pm
Club Friendlies
Cheltenham
1-0
Birmingham
May (85')
Jul 17, 2021 3pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Cheltenham
0-3
Birmingham
Gardner (6'), Hogan (37'), Leko (82')
Jul 21, 2018 3pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Cheltenham
0-3
Birmingham
Lakin (26'), Lubala (52'), N'Doye (89')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City127232217523
3Chelsea126422314922
4Arsenal126422112922
5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton126422116522
6Tottenham HotspurSpurs1261527131419
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest125431513219
8Aston Villa125431919019
9Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
10Fulham125341717018
11Brentford125252222017
12Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
13Bournemouth124351617-115
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Everton122551017-711
16Leicester CityLeicester122461523-810
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves122372028-89
18Crystal Palace121561017-78
19Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
20Southampton11119721-144


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