Eredivisie | Gameweek 22

Feb 19, 2023 at 3.45pm UK

Amsterdam Arena

Ajax
4 - 0
Sparta

Tadic (6', 64' pen.), Taylor (27'), Kudus (84')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Rosario (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Ajax and Sparta Rotterdam, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Ajax 0-0 Union Berlin
Thursday, February 16 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions

Last Game: Sparta 2-1 Go Ahead Eagles
Sunday, February 12 at 11.15am in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Ajax 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam

While Ajax are naturally the favourites to prevail from this fixture, Sparta cannot be discounted, particularly given the home side's efforts earlier in the week. Nevertheless, we have to back Ajax to come through with three points, even if they are made to work hard for a maximum haul. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 81.88%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 6.52%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.36%) and 3-1 (7.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.31%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-2 (2.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	Sparta Rotterdam
81.88% ( -0.77)	11.6% ( 0.47)	6.52% ( 0.3)

Both teams to score 51.02% (

-0.42)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

72.67% (

-1.3)

27.34% (

1.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

52.09% (

-1.65)

47.91% (

1.66)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

95.04% (

-0.36)

4.97% (

0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

80.13% (

-1.1)

19.87% (

1.1)

Sparta Rotterdam Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.69% (

-0.23)

46.31% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.04% (

-0.18)

81.96% (

0.18)

Score Analysis

Ajax 81.87%

Sparta Rotterdam 6.52%

Draw 11.6%

Ajax	Draw	Sparta Rotterdam
3-0 @ 10.37% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 10.36% ( 0.32) 3-1 @ 7.99% ( -0) 2-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.19) 4-0 @ 7.79% ( -0.15) 1-0 @ 6.9% ( 0.38) 4-1 @ 6% ( -0.15) 5-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.21) 5-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.19) 3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 2.34% ( -0.17) 4-2 @ 2.31% ( -0.08) 6-1 @ 1.8% ( -0.14) 5-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.08) 7-0 @ 1% ( -0.1) Other @ 4.29% Total : 81.87%	1-1 @ 5.31% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 3.07% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.18) Other @ 0.92% Total : 11.6%	1-2 @ 2.05% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.13) Other @ 2.71% Total : 6.52%