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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 50%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 26.96% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Utrecht | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
50% ( 0.14) | 23.04% ( 0.04) | 26.96% ( -0.17) |
Both teams to score 60.18% ( -0.28) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.46% ( -0.31) | 40.54% ( 0.32) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.08% ( -0.32) | 62.92% ( 0.33) |
FC Utrecht Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.6% ( -0.07) | 16.4% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.96% ( -0.12) | 46.04% ( 0.13) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.98% ( -0.28) | 28.02% ( 0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.33% ( -0.37) | 63.67% ( 0.37) |
Score Analysis |
FC Utrecht | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.31% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 7.51% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 5.76% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 3.43% Total : 50% | 1-1 @ 10.56% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.03% | 1-2 @ 6.72% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.76% Total : 26.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |