Eredivisie | Gameweek 17

Jan 13, 2024 at 8pm UK

Philips Stadion

PSV
3 - 1
Excelsior

de Jong (13', 17', 69')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Sanches Fernandes (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Eredivisie clash between PSV Eindhoven and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

PSV Eindhoven

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: PSV 1-1 Hamburger SV
Sunday, January 7 at 3.30pm in Club Friendlies 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

SBV Excelsior

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Spakenburg 2-3 Excelsior
Tuesday, December 19 at 7pm in KNVB Beker

Goals
for

We said: PSV Eindhoven 3-0 SBV Excelsior

Excelsior scraped a narrow cup win last time out and are in for another tough 90 minutes against a high-flying PSV side. Bosz's men have been utterly dominant in the history of this fixture, and given the gulf in quality and experience between the two sides, we are backing the hosts to come away with all three points unscathed. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 76.54%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 3-0 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.82%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.

Result
PSV Eindhoven	Draw	SBV Excelsior
76.54% ( -0.64)	13.65% ( 0.44)	9.81% ( 0.22)

Both teams to score 59.38% (

-1.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

74.7% (

-1.65)

25.3% (

1.66)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

54.69% (

-2.18)

45.31% (

2.18)

PSV Eindhoven Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.56% (

-0.44)

5.44% (

0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

78.73% (

-1.3)

21.27% (

1.31)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.79% (

-0.93)

37.21% (

0.94)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.01% (

-0.93)

73.99% (

0.94)

Score Analysis

PSV Eindhoven 76.54%

SBV Excelsior 9.81%

Draw 13.65%

PSV Eindhoven	Draw	SBV Excelsior
2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.44) 2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.23) 3-0 @ 8.33% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 6.06% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.18) 1-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.46) 3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.11) 5-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.12) 5-1 @ 3.49% ( -0.21) 4-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.17) 5-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.15) 6-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.11) 6-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.16) 4-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.08) Other @ 4.83% Total : 76.54%	1-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.21) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.27% Total : 13.65%	1-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 2% ( 0.16) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.61% Total : 9.81%