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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 89.66%. A draw had a probability of 7.1% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 3.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (10%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.25%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (1.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
89.66% ( -0.15) | 7.14% ( 0.08) | 3.2% ( 0.07) |
Both teams to score 46.67% ( 0.44) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
80.16% ( 0.06) | 19.83% ( -0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
62.14% ( 0.09) | 37.85% ( -0.09) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
97.37% ( -0.01) | 2.62% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
87.81% ( -0.04) | 12.18% ( 0.04) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
47.93% ( 0.45) | 52.06% ( -0.45) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.95% ( 0.29) | 86.05% ( -0.29) |
Score Analysis |
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
3-0 @ 10.98% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 10% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 9.06% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 7.17% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 6.53% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 5.91% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 4.42% ( -0.05) 6-1 @ 2.88% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.04) 7-0 @ 2.3% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 2.13% ( 0.04) 5-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.03) 7-1 @ 1.5% ( 0) 8-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) 6-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.91% Total : 89.65% | 1-1 @ 3.25% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 1.93% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.59% Total : 7.14% | 1-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.14% Total : 3.2% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
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