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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 64.02%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 16.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.87%) and 0-1 (7.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.52%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
Result | ||
SBV Excelsior | Draw | Feyenoord |
16.97% ( 0.52) | 19% ( 0.01) | 64.02% ( -0.52) |
Both teams to score 59.83% ( 1.21) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.67% ( 1.01) | 34.33% ( -1.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.76% ( 1.13) | 56.24% ( -1.13) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.62% ( 1.23) | 33.38% ( -1.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.99% ( 1.33) | 70.01% ( -1.32) |
Feyenoord Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.82% ( 0.16) | 10.18% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.55% ( 0.36) | 33.45% ( -0.36) |
Score Analysis |
SBV Excelsior | Draw | Feyenoord |
2-1 @ 4.67% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.95% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 1.71% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.86% Total : 16.97% | 1-1 @ 8.52% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 3.4% ( -0.18) 3-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.26% Total : 19% | 1-2 @ 9.73% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 8.87% ( -0.34) 0-1 @ 7.77% ( -0.36) 1-3 @ 7.41% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 6.75% ( -0.21) 1-4 @ 4.23% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 4.07% ( 0.14) 0-4 @ 3.86% ( -0.1) 2-4 @ 2.32% ( 0.1) 1-5 @ 1.93% ( 0.03) 0-5 @ 1.76% ( -0.03) 2-5 @ 1.06% ( 0.05) Other @ 4.26% Total : 64.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |