MX23RW : Monday, November 4 23:44:00| >> :120:21604:21604:
Freiburg logo
Europa League | Group Stage
Sep 8, 2022 at 8pm UK
Europa Park Stadium
Qarabag

Freiburg
2 - 1
Qarabag FK

Grifo (7' pen.), Doan (15')
Grifo (45+2'), Doan (51')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Vesovic (39')
Bayramov (6'), Richard (81'), Kwabena (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Freiburg and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Plzen 2-1 Qarabag FK
Tuesday, August 23 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Freiburg 1-0 Qarabag FK

Should Streich rotate his side, Freiburg could find this match tougher than many people may expect. Qarabag have provided stubborn resistance to plenty of sides in Europe over the past decade, but we believe that the hosts will bag the three points with a narrow win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 55.45%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 22.57% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.68%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 1-2 (5.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Freiburg in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Freiburg.

Result
FreiburgDrawQarabag FK
55.45% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02) 21.98% (0.004999999999999 0) 22.57% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 58.95% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.05% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)39.95% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.69% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)62.31% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.66% (-0.012999999999991 -0.01)14.33% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.82% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)42.18% (0.016000000000005 0.02)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.81% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)31.18% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.47% (0.010999999999996 0.01)67.52% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Freiburg 55.45%
    Qarabag FK 22.57%
    Draw 21.97%
FreiburgDrawQarabag FK
2-1 @ 9.83% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-0 @ 8.68% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 8.43% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 6.36% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
3-0 @ 5.46% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-2 @ 3.71% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 3.09% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-0 @ 2.65% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
4-2 @ 1.8% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 1.2% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 1.03% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.2%
Total : 55.45%
1-1 @ 10.11%
2-2 @ 5.73% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-0 @ 4.47% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 1.44%
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 21.97%
1-2 @ 5.9% (0.0029999999999992 0)
0-1 @ 5.21% (0.0029999999999992 0)
0-2 @ 3.04% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 2.29% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 2.22% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-3 @ 1.18% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 22.57%

How you voted: Freiburg vs Qarabag FK

Freiburg
72.9%
Draw
14.6%
Qarabag FK
12.5%
144
rhs 2.0
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