Europa League

Europa League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Mar 7, 2024 at 5.45pm UK

Baki Olimpiya Stadionu

Qarabag
2 - 2
B. Leverkusen

(Bayer Leverkusen win 5-4 on aggregate)

Benzia (26'), Juninho (45+2')
Juninho (8')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Wirtz (70'), Schick (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Qarabag FK and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

Last Game: Qarabag 2-3 Braga
Thursday, February 22 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: FC Koln 0-2 B. Leverkusen
Sunday, March 3 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Qarabag FK 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen

As they did against Braga in the playoff round, Qarabag will look to relish their underdog status against Leverkusen and require another resolute defensive performance, similar to their last home outing with Die Werkself earlier this season, if they wish to keep the tie alive heading into the second leg. However, stopping the juggernaut that is Leverkusen will be a tall order for the Azerbaijani hosts, and Alonso's side should ultimately have few problems putting themselves in a strong position to progress beyond the last 16. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 60.42%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 18.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.14%) and 0-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 2-1 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.

Result
Qarabag FK	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
18.96% ( -0.23)	20.62% ( -0.15)	60.42% ( 0.37)

Both teams to score 57.95% (

0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.38% (

0.33)

38.61% (

-0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.08% (

0.35)

60.91% (

-0.36)

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.15% (

-0.04)

33.84% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.49% (

-0.04)

70.51% (

0.03)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.59% (

0.21)

12.4% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.7% (

0.43)

38.3% (

-0.44)

Score Analysis

Qarabag FK 18.96%

Bayer Leverkusen 60.42%

Draw 20.62%

Qarabag FK	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 4.55% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 2.46% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.94% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.02) Other @ 3% Total : 18.96%	1-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.21% Total : 20.62%	1-2 @ 9.91% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.14% ( 0) 0-1 @ 8.76% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 6.89% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 6.36% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 3.73% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 3.6% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 3.32% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 1.95% ( 0.03) 1-5 @ 1.5% ( 0.03) 0-5 @ 1.39% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.88% Total : 60.42%