Alonso may not be so tempted to makes mass changes to his Leverkusen lineup this time around and should turn to some of his star names from the off in a bid to take control of proceedings and begin the second leg in better fashion than the first.
Qarabag will have their tails up heading to Germany and require another spirited display to put themselves in a strong position to progress, but taking into account Leverkusen's strength in depth, the hosts should get the job done to reach the last eight.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 70.56%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 12.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.72%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 1-2 (3.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
-0.18) 
0.09) 
Germany
Switzerland
Hungary
Scotland
Spain
Italy
Croatia
Albania
England
Denmark
Slovenia
Serbia
Austria
France
Netherlands
Poland
Romania
Belgium
Slovakia
Ukraine
Portugal
Turkey
Czech Republic
Georgia
