While Molde have far more to play for in the final round of group games, we can only envisage another triumph for Die Werkself at the BayArena on Thursday. Still unbeaten in all competitions and having won all five Europa League matches so far, Alonso's men are full of confidence and momentum, and with more quality all over the pitch than their hosts, they should come out on top on home turf. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 64.29%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Molde had a probability of 17.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.62%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.54%), while for a Molde win it was 1-2 (4.65%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Molde
64.29% ( -0.01)	18.1% ( 0)	17.6% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 64.88% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

71.42% (

0.01)

28.57% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

50.54% (

0.01)

49.45% (

-0.01)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.48% (

-0)

8.52% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.5% (

-0)

29.5% (

Molde Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.91% (

0.02)

29.08% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35% (

0.02)

65% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen 64.29%

Molde 17.6%

Draw 18.1%

Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Molde
2-1 @ 9.28% 3-1 @ 7.62% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.51% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.17% ( -0) 1-0 @ 6.1% ( -0) 3-2 @ 4.71% ( 0) 4-1 @ 4.69% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.8% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.9% ( 0) 5-1 @ 2.31% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.87% ( -0) 5-2 @ 1.43% 4-3 @ 1.19% ( 0) 6-1 @ 0.95% Other @ 3.77% Total : 64.29%	1-1 @ 7.54% 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0) 0-0 @ 2.48% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.94% ( 0) Other @ 0.42% Total : 18.1%	1-2 @ 4.65% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.06% 2-3 @ 2.36% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.92% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.89% ( 0) Other @ 3.73% Total : 17.6%