An entertaining Group F contest could in store on Friday between two nations who will want to clinch qualification for Euro 2024 with a victory and get the job done with two games to spare.
Both teams are missing a few key players, but we believe that Belgium have the edge in the final third, particular with an in-form Lukaku set to lead the line, and they should outscore the hosts en route to claiming maximum points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 36.97%. A win for Austria had a probability of 36.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.11%) and 0-2 (6.46%). The likeliest Austria win was 1-0 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.
-0.14) 
0.19) 
