Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

France
4 - 0
Netherlands

Griezmann (2'), Upamecano (8'), Mbappe (21', 88')
Rabiot (45'), Konate (71'), Hernandez (90'), Upamecano (90+4')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Geertruida (65'), Blind (78')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

France

All competitions

Last Game: Argentina 3-3 France (4-2 pen.)
Sunday, December 18 at 3pm in World Cup

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	3	3	6
2	Australia	3	-1	6
3	Tunisia	3	0	4
4	Denmark	3	-2	1

Netherlands

All competitions

Last Game: Netherlands 2-2 Argentina (3-4 pen.)
Friday, December 9 at 7pm in World Cup

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Netherlands	3	4	7
2	Senegal	3	1	6
3	Ecuador	3	1	4
4	Qatar	3	-6	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 44.45%. A win for Netherlands had a probability of 29.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a France win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Netherlands win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that France would win this match.

Result
France	Draw	Netherlands
44.45% ( -0.93)	26.46% ( 0.05)	29.1% ( 0.89)

Both teams to score 50.54% (

0.39)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.09% (

0.25)

53.91% (

-0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.64% (

0.21)

75.36% (

-0.2)

France Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.87% (

-0.34)

24.14% (

0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.56% (

-0.49)

58.44% (

0.49)

Netherlands Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.62% (

0.82)

33.39% (

-0.81)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.99% (

0.88)

70.01% (

-0.88)

Score Analysis

France 44.44%

Netherlands 29.1%

Draw 26.45%

France	Draw	Netherlands
1-0 @ 11.45% ( -0.23) 2-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 8.14% ( -0.25) 3-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 3.86% ( -0.16) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.63% Total : 44.44%	1-1 @ 12.56% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.06% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.94% Total : 26.45%	0-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 6.89% ( 0.17) 0-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.17) 1-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.43% Total : 29.1%