UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League A

Sep 25, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Netherlands
1 - 0
Belgium

van Dijk (73')
Dumfries (77'), Taylor (84')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Castagne (6'), Carrasco (82')

Virgil van Dijk, Luka Modric help Netherlands and Croatia to Nations League semis

Goals from Virgil van Dijk and Luka Modric help Netherlands and Croatia both qualify for the semi-finals of the UEFA Nations League.

Sep 25, 21:42

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League clash between Netherlands and Belgium, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Netherlands could line up for Sunday's UEFA Nations League clash with Belgium.

Form, Standings, Stats

Netherlands

All competitions

Last Game: Netherlands 1-0 Belgium
Sunday, September 25 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Next Game: Senegal vs. Netherlands
Monday, November 21 at 4pm in World Cup

Current League A4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Netherlands	6	8	16
2	Belgium	6	3	10
3	Poland	6	-6	7
4	Wales	6	-5	1

Belgium

All competitions

Last Game: Netherlands 1-0 Belgium
Sunday, September 25 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Next Game: Iraq vs. Belgium
Tuesday, November 15 at 12am in International Friendlies

Current League A4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Netherlands	6	8	16
2	Belgium	6	3	10
3	Poland	6	-6	7
4	Wales	6	-5	1

We said: Netherlands 2-2 Belgium

With Belgium having to go for a big win in order to progress to the next stage of the Nations League, we can envisage an open, entertaining clash in Amsterdam on Sunday. Both teams to score has landed in 80% of both nations' matches during the current campaign, so it would be a surprise if either goalkeeper kept a clean sheet, but Netherlands should do enough to retain top spot in Group D. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 45.45%. A win for Belgium had a probability of 29.18% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Belgium win was 0-1 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Netherlands in this match.

Result
Netherlands	Draw	Belgium
45.45% ( 0.97)	25.36% ( 0.3)	29.18% ( -1.28)

Both teams to score 54.02% (

-1.73)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.59% (

-1.93)

49.41% (

1.93)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.55% (

-1.76)

71.45% (

1.76)

Netherlands Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.27% (

-0.37)

21.73% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.1% (

-0.56)

54.9% (

0.56)

Belgium Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.01% (

-1.88)

30.98% (

1.87)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.71% (

-2.26)

67.29% (

2.25)

Score Analysis

Netherlands 45.45%

Belgium 29.18%

Draw 25.36%

Netherlands	Draw	Belgium
1-0 @ 10.27% ( 0.67) 2-1 @ 9.19% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.44) 3-1 @ 4.68% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.99% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.16) 4-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.38% Total : 45.45%	1-1 @ 12.04% ( 0.2) 0-0 @ 6.73% ( 0.51) 2-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.26) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.12) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.36%	0-1 @ 7.89% ( 0.21) 1-2 @ 7.06% ( -0.26) 0-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 2.76% ( -0.25) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.22) 0-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.14) Other @ 2.95% Total : 29.18%