Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 16, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Tose Proeski Arena

N. Macedonia
2 - 3
Ukraine

Bardhi (31' pen.), Elmas (39')
Ristovski (8'), Musliu (54'), Shishkovski (90+5')
Musliu (72')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Zabarnyi (62'), Konoplya (67'), Tsygankov (83')
Dovbyk (45+1'), Mykolenko (90+5')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between North Macedonia and Ukraine, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

North Macedonia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: N. Macedonia 1-0 Faroe Islands
Monday, March 27 at 5pm in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	2	3	6
2	Italy	2	1	3
3	North Macedonia	1	1	3
4	Ukraine	1	-2	0
5	Malta	2	-3	0

Ukraine

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Germany 3-3 Ukraine
Monday, June 12 at 5pm in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	2	3	6
2	Italy	2	1	3
3	North Macedonia	1	1	3
4	Ukraine	1	-2	0
5	Malta	2	-3	0

We said: North Macedonia 1-2 Ukraine

While Germany dominated the possession and shooting statistical columns against Ukraine, Rebrov's side punished their hosts' lackadaisical defending and can be relied upon to do the same against a waning North Macedonia outfit. The manner of the hosts' wins over the Faroe Islands and Malta in March were far from convincing, and we can only picture Ukraine ending the Lynxes' winning sequence to kick-start their bid for a top-two finish. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 41.72%. A win for Ukraine had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Ukraine win was 0-1 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Ukraine would win this match.

Result
North Macedonia	Draw	Ukraine
41.72% ( -2.03)	28.4% ( 0.48)	29.88% ( 1.55)

Both teams to score 45.38% (

-0.55)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.35% (

-1.06)

60.65% (

1.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.27% (

-0.81)

80.73% (

0.81)

North Macedonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.34% (

-1.6)

28.66% (

1.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.52% (

-2.04)

64.48% (

2.04)

Ukraine Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.61% (

0.64)

36.39% (

-0.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.82% (

0.64)

73.17% (

-0.64)

Score Analysis

North Macedonia 41.72%

Ukraine 29.87%

Draw 28.38%

North Macedonia	Draw	Ukraine
1-0 @ 13.03% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.27) 2-0 @ 8.14% ( -0.42) 3-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.28) 3-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.34) 3-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.16) Other @ 1.63% Total : 41.72%	1-1 @ 13.17% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 10.42% ( 0.4) 2-2 @ 4.16% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.38%	0-1 @ 10.54% ( 0.58) 1-2 @ 6.66% ( 0.2) 0-2 @ 5.33% ( 0.38) 1-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.16) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0) Other @ 1.9% Total : 29.87%