FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 8, 2023 at 2pm UK

The Northern Gas and Power Stadium

Hartlepool
0 - 3
Stoke

Hamilton (47')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Murray (16' og.), Brown (43'), Menayese (48' og.)

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's FA Cup clash between Hartlepool United and Stoke City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Hartlepool United

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Hartlepool 3-3 Harrogate
Sunday, January 1 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Stoke City

All competitions

Last Game: Stoke 0-1 Preston
Monday, January 2 at 3.15pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Hartlepool United 0-2 Stoke City

Hartlepool have nothing to lose as they head into this tough assignment against Championship opposition - something that will make a pleasant change from a League Two campaign clouded with relegation worries. The Potters are heavy favourites to progress into the fourth round, and with Gayle returning to the matchday squad, they without doubt have enough quality to get the better of their fourth-tier hosts on Sunday afternoon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 49.85%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 25.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 1-0 (7.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.

Result
Hartlepool United	Draw	Stoke City
25.02% ( 0.86)	25.13% ( 0.52)	49.85% ( -1.38)

Both teams to score 51.46% (

-0.71)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.79% (

-1.36)

51.2% (

1.36)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.96% (

-1.2)

73.04% (

1.2)

Hartlepool United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.78% (

0.01)

35.22% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.02% (

0.01)

71.98% (

-0.01)

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.44% (

-1.11)

20.56% (

1.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.92% (

-1.78)

53.07% (

1.78)

Score Analysis

Hartlepool United 25.02%

Stoke City 49.84%

Draw 25.13%

Hartlepool United	Draw	Stoke City
1-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.41) 2-1 @ 6.24% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 3.94% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 2.17% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.37% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.03% Total : 25.02%	1-1 @ 11.95% ( 0.25) 0-0 @ 7.24% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.13%	0-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 9.45% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 9.06% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 4.99% ( -0.24) 0-3 @ 4.78% ( -0.24) 2-3 @ 2.6% ( -0.13) 1-4 @ 1.97% ( -0.17) 0-4 @ 1.89% ( -0.16) 2-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.62% Total : 49.84%