FA Cup | Fourth Round Replays
Feb 6, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton3 - 0Watford
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Rotherham 0-2 Southampton
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Championship
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Watford 0-1 Cardiff
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Championship
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Championship
We said: Southampton 3-1 Watford
Southampton have home advantage in this winner-takes-all clash, and they should be confident of extending their unbeaten run to 24 matches on Tuesday night. Watford have a number of attacking players who could cause damage on the South Coast, but we believe that the Hornets' FA Cup journey ends here. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 57.92%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Watford had a probability of 20.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Watford win it was 1-2 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Southampton | Draw | Watford |
57.92% ( -0.01) | 21.9% ( 0) | 20.18% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 55.61% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.3% | 42.7% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.9% ( -0) | 65.1% |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.52% ( -0) | 14.47% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 57.55% ( -0.01) | 42.45% ( 0.01) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.02% ( 0.01) | 34.98% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.28% ( 0.01) | 71.72% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
Southampton 57.92%
Watford 20.18%
Draw 21.89%
| Southampton | Draw | Watford |
| 2-1 @ 9.93% 1-0 @ 9.79% ( -0)2-0 @ 9.46% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.4% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.09% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.36% 4-1 @ 3.09% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.94% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.62% 5-1 @ 1.2% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.14% ( -0)Other @ 2.9% Total : 57.92% | 1-1 @ 10.27% 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.06% 3-3 @ 1.18% ( 0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.89% | 1-2 @ 5.4% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.32% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.79% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.89% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.83% ( 0)0-3 @ 0.98% ( 0)Other @ 1.97% Total : 20.18% |
How you voted: Southampton vs Watford
Southampton
81.5%Draw
10.2%Watford
8.3%157
Head to Head
Jan 28, 2024 2pm
Fourth Round
Watford
1-1
Southampton
Jul 23, 2022 3pm
Club Friendlies
Watford
0-0
Southampton
Mar 13, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 29
Southampton
1-2
Watford
Oct 30, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 10
Watford
0-1
Southampton
Form Guide
