MX23RW : Sunday, February 16 07:29:50| >> :600:155580:155580:
Southampton logo
FA Cup | Fourth Round Replays
Feb 6, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Watford logo

Southampton
3 - 0
Watford

Mara (52', 58'), Adams (76')
Smallbone (21'), Obling (51'), Edozie (86'), Armstrong (87')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Morris (46'), Chakvetadze (49'), Porteous (69'), Sierralta (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Southampton and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Rotherham 0-2 Southampton
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Watford 0-1 Cardiff
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Southampton 3-1 Watford

Southampton have home advantage in this winner-takes-all clash, and they should be confident of extending their unbeaten run to 24 matches on Tuesday night. Watford have a number of attacking players who could cause damage on the South Coast, but we believe that the Hornets' FA Cup journey ends here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 57.92%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Watford had a probability of 20.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Watford win it was 1-2 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.

Result
SouthamptonDrawWatford
57.92% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01) 21.9% (0.0019999999999989 0) 20.18% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Both teams to score 55.61% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.3%42.7% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.9% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)65.1%
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.52% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)14.47% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.55% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)42.45% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.02% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)34.98% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.28% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)71.72% (-0.0099999999999909 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Southampton 57.92%
    Watford 20.18%
    Draw 21.89%
SouthamptonDrawWatford
2-1 @ 9.93%
1-0 @ 9.79% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
2-0 @ 9.46% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 6.4% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-0 @ 6.09% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 3.36%
4-1 @ 3.09% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 2.94% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.62%
5-1 @ 1.2% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 1.14% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 57.92%
1-1 @ 10.27%
2-2 @ 5.22% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-0 @ 5.06%
3-3 @ 1.18% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 21.89%
1-2 @ 5.4% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-1 @ 5.32% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 2.79% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-3 @ 1.89% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.83% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 0.98% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 20.18%

How you voted: Southampton vs Watford

Southampton
81.5%
Draw
10.2%
Watford
8.3%
157
Head to Head
Jan 28, 2024 2pm
Fourth Round
Watford
1-1
Southampton
Martins (5')
Chakvetadze (45')
Armstrong (89')
Holgate (4'), Alcaraz (40')
Dec 9, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 20
Watford
1-1
Southampton
Healey (90+6')
Porteous (59'), Kone (61'), Hoedt (87')
Adams (56')
Charles (34'), Armstrong (45'), Armstrong (87'), Fraser (90+3')
Jul 23, 2022 3pm
Mar 13, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 29
Southampton
1-2
Watford
Elyounoussi (45')
Perraud (48'), Romeu (65'), Bednarek (76')
Camilo Hernandez (14', 34')
Camilo Hernandez (60'), Sissoko (86')
Oct 30, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 10
Watford
0-1
Southampton

Pedro (45+2'), Kucka (76')
Adams (20')
Salisu (55'), Ward-Prowse (58')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool24176158233557
2Arsenal25158251222953
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest25145641291247
4Manchester CityMan City25135752351744
5Bournemouth25127644291543
6Chelsea25127647341343
7Newcastle UnitedNewcastle2512584233941
8Fulham2510963833539
9Aston Villa2510873538-338
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton2591063838037
11Brentford25104114342134
12Crystal Palace257992932-330
13Everton257992731-430
14Manchester UnitedMan Utd2485112834-629
15Tottenham HotspurSpurs24831348371127
16West Ham UnitedWest Ham2576122947-1827
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves2454153452-1819
18Ipswich TownIpswich2538142350-2717
19Leicester CityLeicester2545162555-3017
20Southampton2523201957-389


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!