Honduras and Cuba will battle for a place in the CONCACAF Nations League quarter-finals on Sunday at Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles in Tegucigalpa.
Earlier this week, these teams played to a 0-0 draw in Santo Domingo, putting Los Leones del Caribe a point above La H in the Group B standings.
Match preview
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It was a frustrating evening for the Hondurans on matchday three as they had 68% of the possession but could not find a way through the pesky Cuban backline.
That was the third time in the last four matches that this team had failed to find the back of the net, with Reinaldo Rueda winning only one of his four matches on the sidelines since being re-named the head coach of Los Catrachos.
Although this team have only scored in one contest since Rueda took charge, those four goals on matchday two against Grenada were as many as La H had managed in the five combined games played before Rueda's arrival.
All five of their group-stage victories at the Nations League have occurred when Honduras have scored in the opening half, while they have never won a match in this phase of the competition when conceding in the first 45 minutes.
The Hondurans have only claimed one point at this tournament when conceding the opening goal (1-1 draw against Martinique in 2019), though they have come back to earn a result in two of their previous three competitive fixtures in which they have trailed 1-0.
An encouraging statistic for Los Catrachos heading into this final group encounter is that they have not conceded in their last five meetings against the Cubans, while a victory on Sunday would advance them beyond the group stage of this tournament for the second time in three appearances.
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They are far from the most mesmerising side we have ever seen regarding quality and creativity, but the Cubans' patience and commitment to defending has them on the verge of what would be quite an achievement.
With a victory over the Hondurans this weekend, Cuba would qualify for the knockout stage of a CONCACAF tournament for the first time since the 2015 Gold Cup, while it would also the first time they end the group portion of a continental competition unbeaten.
The plan from manager Yunielys Castillo appears to be to stack the midfield with bodies in an attempt to suffocate the opposition, a tactic that his side have executed incredibly well thus far.
Los Leones del Caribe failed to find the back of the net in their first League A appearance at this competition in 2019-20, giving up a goal in each of those encounters, but in their three top-tier matches played this year, they have yet to concede.
Their five losses in between League A and B at this tournament have all occurred when they have given up a goal before the interval, while each of their victories have come when leading after 45 minutes.
Cuba have lost each of their visits to Honduras and will need to change that on Sunday to advance, as a victory would assure them a place in the quarter-finals, while a draw might also be enough, as it would put them up to six points and force Haiti to beat Jamaica by at least two or more goals.
Team News
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From matchday two to three at the Nations League, we saw four newcomers in the Honduran starting 11 with Andy Najar, Bryan Acosta, Rigoberto Rivas and Romell Quioto entering the lineup in place of Maylor Nunez, Jorge Alvarez, Edwin Rodriguez and Alexander Lopez.
Luis Palma can hit the double-digit mark for appearances with La H this weekend, while Anthony Lozano needs five more caps to reach 50, and Najar is four away from that same feat.
Edrick Menjivar has posted back-to-back clean sheets at the Nations League, stopping two shots in their goalless draw earlier this week, while he has not conceded more than once in a single game all year.
Two changes were made to the Cuban starting 11 on Thursday, with Modesto Mendez and Alejandro Delgado replacing Dariel Morejon and Luis Paradela.
Reidel Sanchez made his first senior appearance for Cuba the last time out as Mario Penalver played for the first time in League A, with the two of them coming on as second-half substitutes against La H in place of Willian Pozo-Venta and Delgado.
Raiko Arozarena is the only goalkeeper who has featured in League A this season that has not conceded a goal, as he stopped five Honduran efforts for a third successive clean sheet.
Honduras possible starting lineup:
Menjivar; E. Rivas, Najar, Maldonado, Vega; Acosta, Arriaga; Palma; Quioto, Lozano, Elis
Cuba possible starting lineup:
Arozarena; Piedra, Morejon, Corrales, Sanchez; Cavafe; Rodriguez, E. Hernandez, Perez, Pozo-Venta; Matos
We say: Honduras 1-0 Cuba
Frustration must be high in Honduras after the Cubans stifled them throughout the 90 minutes on matchday three.
However, there are some experienced attacking players in the fold with La H who have overcome adversity before, and we believe they will find a way to get the job done against what could be another all-out defensive outing by their opponents.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
