Qatar take on Honduras in their final group stage match of the CONCACAF Gold Cup on Tuesday at BBVA Compass Stadium in Houston.
The Maroon crushed Grenada 4-0 in their second match of the tournament, while La H scored two second-half goals to beat Panama 3-2.
Match preview
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Two years on from their 2019 Gold Cup failure, finishing bottom of their group, the Hondurans have taken care of business this time around, winning both of their matches and scoring seven goals in that span.
This edition of La Bicolor can rest assured that they will be progressing beyond the group stage this time around, but they will not be satisfied with that, as they hope to win their group for the first time since 2013.
To do that, they will have to shut down a team that have been just as threatening in attack as they have, with Qatar scoring seven goals through two games, the same amount as Honduras.
Manager Fabian Coito will be relieved to see his team progress beyond this stage of the competition, but the Uruguayan knows that his side need to be sharper defensively, after conceding two first-half goals against the Panamanians and giving up the same amount of shots on target (six) as they did in their three previous games combined.
This team have shown the capability to destabilize some strong attacking sides, most notably holding the Mexicans to zero shots on target in their final friendly game before this tournament, which ended in a 0-0 draw.
On Saturday, La H scored twice in four minutes to erase a 2-1 deficit, the first time they had won when trailing in the second half since defeating Mexico 3-2 in a World Cup qualifier in October 2017.
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Qatar have been a real handful for opposing defences through their first two matches of this tournament, putting up four goals versus Grenada, the most this team have scored in a single match since a 5-0 win over Bangladesh in December 2020.
Felix Sanchez saw his side win their first match ever at this tournament with some sublime football, taking the lead in the 11th minute and never looking back as they dominated from start to finish, moving into second place in Group D with four points.
As good as they looked in the final third, Sanchez might be most pleased with how much better they were on the back end, allowing only five shots total, two on target versus the Grenadians, limiting them to only 36% possession.
Sanchez will want them to maintain the same intensity and focus as they had in their second game, especially knowing that they have not yet officially claimed a spot in the quarter-finals, needing a point versus Honduras to ensure a passage into the last eight.
This side will wish that they could play more meaningful games against teams in CONCACAF, as they seem to bring the best out of them offensively, scoring eight goals in their last three games versus teams in that region.
While they have done well against teams in their own region, their attack has not been as clinical, scoring eight goals in their last five games against teams within Asia.
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Team News
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CF Montreal striker Romell Quioto scored a brace in their victory on Saturday, his 10th and 11th for his country, as he leads the Hondurans in this competition with three so far.
Quioto replaced veteran forward Jerry Bengtson, who scored in their opener, while Alberth Elis started their game on Saturday on the wing instead of Edwin Solano, and Walter Martinez sat out the full 90 minutes.
Goalkeeper Luis Lopez was as busy as he has been in quite some time for La H, facing six shots versus Panama and stopping four, the most shots that he has faced since Jamaica fired eight shots on him in a 3-2 victory for the Reggae Boyz at the Gold Cup two years ago.
Almoez Ali and Akram Afif scored for Qatar for a second match running, and Ali is now even with his teammate Hassan Al-Haydos for third all-time with 32 goals, while Afif moved past Sayed Ali Bechir into eighth place all-time with his 21st international goal.
Ro-Ro moved from a wing-back role in their opening fixture up into midfield versus Grenada, as Sanchez employed a back three with Boualem Khoukhi being flanked by Abdelkarim Hassan and Tarek Salman, who saw his first action of the competition.
Goalkeeper Meshaal Barsham started his third consecutive match for Qatar, making two saves for his second clean sheet in that span.
Honduras possible starting lineup:
L. Lopez; Rodriguez, Pereira, Alvarez, Leveron; Acotsa, Martinez, Flores; Quioto, A. Lopez, Elis
Qatar possible starting lineup:
Barsham; Hassan, Al-Rawi, Salman, Kheder; Ahmed, Afif, Boudiaf, Madibo; Ali, Al-Haydos
We say: Honduras 2-2 Qatar
These sides are evenly matched, with both of them scoring the same amount of goals in their first two games, with the Hondurans having conceded one fewer.
Honduras are already guaranteed a spot in the last eight of this competition, and Qatar are likely to join them barring some unforeseen scenario, so they should both be content with a single point while not risking any yellow cards or injuries heading into the knockout stage.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 41.22%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 34.76% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.58%) and 0-2 (6.06%). The likeliest Honduras win was 2-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Qatar would win this match.
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Jamaica
Saint Kitts
Mexico
Qatar
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Panama
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