Nigeria have a superior team going into this match, especially due to the fact that Mali are without some of their best legs. With the Super Eagles playing without pressure, we think they will edge this game due to their quality in front of goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 50.08%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Nigeria had a probability of 23.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.66%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.25%), while for a Nigeria win it was 0-1 (8.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.

Result
Mali	Draw	Nigeria
50.08% ( 0.06)	25.95% ( -0.18)	23.97% ( 0.12)

Both teams to score 48.04% (

0.63)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.82% (

0.76)

55.18% (

-0.76)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.58% (

0.62)

76.42% (

-0.62)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.92% (

0.35)

22.08% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.56% (

0.52)

55.43% (

-0.52)

Nigeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.65% (

0.54)

38.35% (

-0.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.89% (

0.51)

75.1% (

-0.51)

Score Analysis

Mali 50.08%

Nigeria 23.98%

Draw 25.94%

Mali	Draw	Nigeria
1-0 @ 12.79% ( -0.24) 2-0 @ 9.66% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.66% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.23% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.01% Total : 50.08%	1-1 @ 12.25% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.78% Total : 25.94%	0-1 @ 8.12% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 3.89% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.56% Total : 23.98%