Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 34.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.
Result | ||
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Girona |
34.27% ( 0.05) | 25.82% ( 0.16) | 39.91% ( -0.22) |
Both teams to score 54.58% ( -0.53) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.39% ( -0.69) | 49.61% ( 0.69) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.37% ( -0.62) | 71.63% ( 0.62) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.3% ( -0.3) | 27.7% ( 0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.74% ( -0.38) | 63.26% ( 0.38) |
Girona Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.49% ( -0.42) | 24.51% ( 0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.03% ( -0.59) | 58.97% ( 0.59) |
Score Analysis |
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Girona |
1-0 @ 8.72% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 7.87% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.59% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 3.37% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.89% Total : 34.27% | 1-1 @ 12.25% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 6.79% ( 0.19) 2-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.81% | 0-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 8.62% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 6.71% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 4.04% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.07) 1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.83% Total : 39.91% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 49 |
2 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 48 |
3 | Barcelona | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 59 | 24 | 35 | 42 |
4 | Athletic Bilbao | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 40 |
5 | Villarreal | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 44 | 33 | 11 | 37 |
6 | Rayo Vallecano | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 32 |
7 | Mallorca | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 30 |
8 | GironaGirona | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 28 |
9 | Real Sociedad | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 28 |
10 | Real BetisBetis | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 28 |
11 | Sevilla | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 28 |
12 | Osasuna | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 27 |
13 | Celta Vigo | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 25 |
14 | Getafe | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 24 |
15 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 23 |
16 | Leganes | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 23 |
17 | Espanyol | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 23 |
18 | AlavesAlaves | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 21 |
19 | Valencia | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 36 | -16 | 16 |
20 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 47 | -32 | 15 |
> La Liga Full Table |