La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 16

Dec 10, 2023 at 1pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
2 - 1
Almeria

Morata (17'), Correa (22')
Koke (90+1')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Baptistao (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Almeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Barcelona 1-0 Atletico
Sunday, December 3 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Almeria

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Barbastro 1-0 Almeria
Wednesday, December 6 at 11am in Copa del Rey

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atletico Madrid 3-0 Almeria

It would be one of the biggest surprises of the season if Almeria were able to pick up a positive result on Sunday, and we just cannot see the visitors avoiding defeat. Atletico will be aiming to bounce back from their loss to Barcelona and should have far too much quality for their opponents. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 71.03%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 12.14%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 1-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.77%), while for an Almeria win it was 1-2 (3.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Almeria
71.03% ( 0.18)	16.83% ( -0.06)	12.14% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 54.65% (

-0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.18% (

-0.04)

34.82% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.21% (

-0.05)

56.79% (

0.04)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.32% (

0.03)

8.68% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.1% (

0.08)

29.9% (

-0.08)

Almeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.84% (

-0.23)

40.15% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.21% (

-0.21)

76.79% (

0.2)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 71.03%

Almeria 12.14%

Draw 16.83%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Almeria
2-0 @ 10.41% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 7.74% ( 0) 4-0 @ 5.18% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 4.73% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.53% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.01) 5-2 @ 1.05% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 2.91% Total : 71.03%	1-1 @ 7.77% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.33% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 16.83%	1-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 3.18% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.56% Total : 12.14%