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La Liga | Gameweek 5
Sep 16, 2023 at 3.15pm UK
Estadio de Mestalla
Atletico Madrid logo

Valencia
3 - 0
Atletico

Duro (5', 34'), Guerra (54')
Mamardashvili (56')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Hermoso (23'), Llorente (36'), Griezmann (37'), Niguez (74'), Barrios (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Valencia and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Alaves 1-0 Valencia
Saturday, September 2 at 5.30pm in La Liga

We said: Valencia 0-1 Atletico Madrid

Atletico were stunning against Rayo last time out, and while we are not predicting a similar outcome here, the capital giants should have enough quality to secure another three points against a Valencia side that have been disappointing in their last two matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 42.13%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Valencia win was 1-0 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.

Result
ValenciaDrawAtletico Madrid
31.16% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01) 26.71% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 42.13% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Both teams to score 50.76% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.91% (0.016999999999996 0.02)54.09% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.49% (0.012999999999998 0.01)75.52% (-0.01100000000001 -0.01)
Valencia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.02% (0.0030000000000001 0)31.98%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.56%68.44% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.62% (0.016999999999996 0.02)25.38% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.82% (0.022999999999996 0.02)60.19% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Valencia 31.16%
    Atletico Madrid 42.12%
    Draw 26.71%
ValenciaDrawAtletico Madrid
1-0 @ 9.25% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
2-1 @ 7.23% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-0 @ 5.28% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
3-1 @ 2.75%
3-0 @ 2.01% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 1.89% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 31.16%
1-1 @ 12.68% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.12% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-2 @ 4.96% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 26.71%
0-1 @ 11.12% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.7% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 7.63% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 3.98% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 3.49% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 2.27% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 1.36% (0.002 0)
0-4 @ 1.2% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 42.12%

How you voted: Valencia vs Atletico

Valencia
8.5%
Draw
6.4%
Atletico Madrid
85.1%
47
Head to Head
Mar 18, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 26
Atletico
3-0
Valencia
Griezmann (23'), Carrasco (49'), Lemar (67')
Aug 29, 2022 9pm
Gameweek 3
Valencia
0-1
Atletico

Maranhao (18'), Gattuso (26'), Correia (42'), Comert (76'), Perez (83')
Griezmann (66')
Niguez (14'), Simeone (26'), Mandava (27'), Felix (55')
Jan 22, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 22
Atletico
3-2
Valencia
Cunha (64'), Correa (90+1'), Hermoso (90+3')
Koke (27'), Hermoso (37'), Suarez (82'), Herrera (84'), Gimenez (90+3')
Musah (25'), Duro (44')
Correia (14'), Foulquier (37'), Musah (43'), Guillamon (61'), Lato (65'), Domenech (83')
Nov 7, 2021 3.15pm
Gameweek 13
Valencia
3-3
Atletico
Savic (50' og.), Duro (90+2', 90+6')
Guillamon (76'), Musah (90+4')
Suarez (35'), Griezmann (58'), Vrsaljko (62')
Carrasco (90'), Griezmann (90+5')
Jan 24, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 20
Atletico
3-1
Valencia
Felix (23'), Suarez (54'), Correa (72')
Vrsaljko (30'), Savic (76')
Racic (11')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona26183571254657
2Real Madrid27176457263157
3Atletico MadridAtletico27168344182656
4Athletic Bilbao271310445242149
5Villarreal26128648361244
6Real BetisBetis2711883533241
7Mallorca27107102633-737
8Rayo Vallecano279992929036
9Celta Vigo27106114041-136
10Sevilla279993236-436
11Real Sociedad27104132328-534
12Getafe2789102322133
13Osasuna2671273237-533
14GironaGirona2695123439-532
15Espanyol2576122436-1227
16Valencia2769123045-1527
17Leganes2769122440-1627
18AlavesAlaves2768133040-1026
19Las PalmasLas Palmas2766153045-1524
20Real ValladolidValladolid2744191862-4416


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