League One

League One | Gameweek 17

Nov 11, 2023 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
3 - 0
Barnsley

Collins (35' pen., 63'), Forsyth (48')
Collins (17'), Forsyth (36')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Russell (65')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Barnsley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 4-1 Wolves U21s
Wednesday, November 8 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

Barnsley

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Barnsley 3-3 Horsham
Friday, November 3 at 7.45pm in FA Cup

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Derby County 1-1 Barnsley

Despite both sides finding themselves in and around the playoff places at this early stage, neither are yet to truly kick into gear so far this term, and we do not envisage either team outclassing the other at Pride Park on Saturday and instead opt for a share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.96%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 23.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Barnsley
51.96% ( 0.02)	24.59% ( 0)	23.45% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 51.46% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.61% (

-0.02)

50.39% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.67% (

-0.01)

72.32% (

0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.62% (

19.37% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.83%

51.17%

Barnsley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.83% (

-0.02)

36.17% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.04% (

-0.02)

72.95% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Derby County 51.96%

Barnsley 23.45%

Draw 24.58%

Derby County	Draw	Barnsley
1-0 @ 11.5% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.6% 2-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.25% 3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.67% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.16% 4-0 @ 2.12% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.97% Total : 51.96%	1-1 @ 11.69% 0-0 @ 7.01% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.58%	0-1 @ 7.13% 1-2 @ 5.95% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.62% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.02% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.65% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.23% ( -0) Other @ 1.86% Total : 23.45%