League One

League One | Gameweek 40

Mar 23, 2024 at 3pm UK

Sixfields Stadium

Northampton
1 - 0
Derby

Hoskins (23')
Pinnock (14'), Brady (15'), Leonard (66')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Sibley (45'), Cashin (50')
Bradley (90+10')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Northampton Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northampton Town

All competitions

Last Game: Wycombe 2-0 Northampton
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 1-0 Bolton
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Northampton Town 1-3 Derby County

Derby travel to Sixfields off the back of a fine run of form, and we think that the promotion-chasing side will prove too strong for a Northampton team that will be low on confidence following a poor spell of results. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.03%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 16.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.92%) and 1-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-0 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
Northampton Town	Draw	Derby County
16.81% ( 0.05)	23.16%	60.03% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 45.68% (

0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.13% (

0.07)

52.86% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.52% (

0.06)

74.48% (

-0.06)

Northampton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.22% (

0.1)

44.77% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.25% (

0.08)

80.75% (

-0.07)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.72% (

0.01)

17.27% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.39% (

0.02)

47.61% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Northampton Town 16.81%

Derby County 60.03%

Draw 23.15%

Northampton Town	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 6.22% 2-1 @ 4.39% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.51% Total : 16.81%	1-1 @ 10.91% 0-0 @ 7.73% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.66% Total : 23.15%	0-1 @ 13.58% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 11.92% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.58% ( 0) 0-3 @ 6.98% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.61% ( 0) 0-4 @ 3.06% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.46% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.01) 0-5 @ 1.08% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.51% Total : 60.03%