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League One
Northampton Town
League One | Gameweek 40
Mar 23, 2024 at 3pm UK
Sixfields Stadium
Derby logo

Northampton
1 - 0
Derby

Hoskins (23')
Pinnock (14'), Brady (15'), Leonard (66')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Sibley (45'), Cashin (50')
Bradley (90+10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Northampton Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northampton Town

All competitions
Last Game: Wycombe 2-0 Northampton
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Bolton
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

We said: Northampton Town 1-3 Derby County

 Derby travel to Sixfields off the back of a fine run of form, and we think that the promotion-chasing side will prove too strong for a Northampton team that will be low on confidence following a poor spell of results. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.03%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 16.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.92%) and 1-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-0 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
Northampton TownDrawDerby County
16.81% (0.045000000000002 0.05) 23.16%60.03% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Both teams to score 45.68% (0.085000000000001 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.13% (0.071000000000005 0.07)52.86% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.52% (0.061 0.06)74.48% (-0.055000000000007 -0.06)
Northampton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.22% (0.098999999999997 0.1)44.77% (-0.093000000000004 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.25% (0.079999999999998 0.08)80.75% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.72% (0.013000000000005 0.01)17.27% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.39% (0.018000000000001 0.02)47.61% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Northampton Town 16.81%
    Derby County 60.03%
    Draw 23.15%
Northampton TownDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 6.22%
2-1 @ 4.39% (0.013 0.01)
2-0 @ 2.5% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.18% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.03% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 1.51%
Total : 16.81%
1-1 @ 10.91%
0-0 @ 7.73% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 3.85% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 23.15%
0-1 @ 13.58% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-2 @ 11.92% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 9.58% (0.004999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 6.98% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.61% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-4 @ 3.06% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 2.46% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 2.25% (0.008 0.01)
0-5 @ 1.08% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-4 @ 0.99% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.51%
Total : 60.03%

How you voted: Northampton vs Derby

Northampton Town
7.0%
Draw
5.3%
Derby County
87.7%
57
Head to Head
Oct 31, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 7
Derby
4-0
Northampton
Bird (14', 32'), Washington (22'), Mendez-Laing (49')
Washington (57')

Brough (2'), Odimayo (71')
> Preview
Feb 4, 2020 7.45pm
Fourth Round
Derby
4-2
Northampton
Wisdom (28'), Holmes (35'), Marriott (51'), Rooney (77' pen.)
Adams (47'), Hoskins (84' pen.)
Watson (55')
> Match Report
Jan 24, 2020 8pm
Fourth Round
Northampton
0-0
Derby
Watson (93')
Bogle (81')
> Match Report
Jul 25, 2017 7.45pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Northampton
1-0
Derby
Richards (18')
Jul 18, 2015 2pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Northampton
0-1
Derby
Russell (32')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham34247356223479
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe351911561332868
3Wrexham35208750282268
4Stockport CountyStockport361711852341862
5Charlton AthleticCharlton35179946311560
6Bolton WanderersBolton35186115751660
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield361771247331458
8Reading351510104945455
9Leyton Orient361651551371453
10Barnsley36157145051-152
11Blackpool35111595247548
12Stevenage35139133335-248
13Lincoln CityLincoln361210144845346
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham35128153941-244
15Wigan AthleticWigan351110143234-243
16Mansfield TownMansfield35118164148-741
17Northampton TownNorthampton361011153653-1741
18Exeter CityExeter34117163750-1340
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough35109165260-839
20Bristol Rovers35116183653-1739
21Burton Albion36712173653-1733
22Crawley TownCrawley3579193865-2730
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge3578203458-2429
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury3677223460-2628
> League One Full Table


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