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League One
Derby logo
League One | Gameweek 38
Mar 12, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Reading logo

Derby
2 - 1
Reading

Gayle (53'), Hourihane (70' pen.)
Cashin (47'), Adams (57'), Sibley (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Smith (56')
Bindon (10'), Yiadom (32'), Mola (49'), Pereira (69'), Wareham (90+4')
Yiadom (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Derby County and Reading, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Bristol Rovers 0-3 Derby
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One

Reading

All competitions
Last Game: Reading 1-2 Wycombe
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 Reading

 Derby would have certainly taken confidence from their last two successful outings, and we think that they will continue to build momentum by claiming all three points in Tuesday's midweek fixture against an inconsistent Reading team. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Reading had a probability of 18.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Reading win it was 0-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawReading
59.58% (-0.133 -0.13) 21.57% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02) 18.85% (0.145 0.15)
Both teams to score 54.4% (0.321 0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.81% (0.294 0.29)43.19% (-0.29499999999999 -0.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.41% (0.288 0.29)65.59% (-0.291 -0.29)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.88% (0.054000000000002 0.05)14.12% (-0.055999999999999 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.24% (0.107 0.11)41.76% (-0.11 -0.11)
Reading Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.35% (0.335 0.34)36.65% (-0.337 -0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.56% (0.33 0.33)73.44% (-0.333 -0.33)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 59.58%
    Reading 18.85%
    Draw 21.57%
Derby CountyDrawReading
1-0 @ 10.13% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-1 @ 9.95% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 9.92% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
3-1 @ 6.5% (0.014 0.01)
3-0 @ 6.47% (-0.046 -0.05)
3-2 @ 3.26% (0.037 0.04)
4-1 @ 3.18% (0.013 0.01)
4-0 @ 3.17% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.6% (0.021 0.02)
5-1 @ 1.25% (0.008 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.24% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 59.58%
1-1 @ 10.16% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.17% (-0.068 -0.07)
2-2 @ 5% (0.046 0.05)
3-3 @ 1.09% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 21.57%
0-1 @ 5.19% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 5.1% (0.037 0.04)
0-2 @ 2.61% (0.014 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.71% (0.027 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.67% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 18.85%

How you voted: Derby vs Reading

Derby County
84.3%
Draw
8.6%
Reading
7.1%
70
Head to Head
Jan 23, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 18
Reading
1-0
Derby
Mukairu (54')
Mbengue (73')
> Preview
Jan 3, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 26
Reading
2-2
Derby
Hoilett (37', 56')
Laurent (45')
Kazim-Richards (86'), Davies (90+1')
Davies (82'), Byrne (90+6')
> Preview
Sep 29, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 10
Derby
1-0
Reading
Forsyth (33')
Stearman (16'), Byrne (59'), Shinnie (74'), Lawrence (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 5, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 40
Reading
3-1
Derby
> Match Report
Sep 12, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 1
Derby
0-2
Reading

Shinnie (37'), Sibley (45+2'), Byrne (47')
Joao (40'), Ejaria (45+1')
Olise (64'), Richards (90+3')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Buccaneers
@
Chiefs
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham1292123111229
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe1282226161026
3Wrexham1374221101125
4Mansfield TownMansfield127322014624
5Lincoln CityLincoln137332016424
6Bolton WanderersBolton137242219323
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield137151912722
8Barnsley136432118322
9Reading137152120122
10Stockport CountyStockport135622012821
11Exeter CityExeter126151310319
12Charlton AthleticCharlton135441514119
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough145362526-118
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham144551416-217
15Stevenage145271015-517
16Blackpool134452125-416
17Bristol Rovers135171520-516
18Northampton TownNorthampton134361720-315
19Wigan AthleticWigan133551211114
20Leyton Orient133281118-711
21Cambridge UnitedCambridge123181117-610
22Crawley TownCrawley133191225-1310
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1422101325-128
24Burton Albion120481325-124
> League One Full Table


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