League One

League One | Gameweek 41

Mar 29, 2024 at 3pm UK

Weston Homes Stadium

Peterborough
1 - 3
Carlisle

Randall (61')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Mellish (27', 49', 58')
Ellis (7'), Mellish (33')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Peterborough United and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Peterborough United

All competitions

Last Game: Peterborough 0-1 Portsmouth
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Carlisle United

All competitions

Last Game: Carlisle 2-2 Stevenage
Saturday, March 23 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Peterborough United 2-0 Carlisle United

Peterborough come into this game with almost triple the points that Carlisle have picked up this season and will be strong favourites to take all three points from the match as they continue their push for the automatic promotion places. While Carlisle were able to gain a point from the reverse fixture of this tie thanks to a 96th-minute equaliser from Jordan Gibson, they have failed to win on Peterborough's home soil since the 1999-2000 season, losing four out of five meetings since then. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 70.6%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 12.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 1-0 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.01%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-2 (3.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.

Result
Peterborough United	Draw	Carlisle United
70.6% ( -0.31)	17.19% ( 0.16)	12.22% ( 0.14)

Both teams to score 53.51% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.61% (

-0.44)

36.39% (

0.43)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.48% (

-0.48)

58.52% (

0.47)

Peterborough United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.82% (

-0.19)

9.18% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.9% (

-0.44)

31.1% (

0.44)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.92% (

-0.06)

41.08% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.37% (

-0.05)

77.62% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Peterborough United 70.59%

Carlisle United 12.22%

Draw 17.19%

Peterborough United	Draw	Carlisle United
2-0 @ 10.75% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.57% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9.01% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 8.56% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 7.62% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 5.11% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 4.55% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 2.44% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 2.17% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.03) 6-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.03) 5-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.47% Total : 70.59%	1-1 @ 8.01% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 4.26% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.77% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 17.19%	1-2 @ 3.56% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.36% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.26% 1-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.49% Total : 12.22%