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League One | Gameweek 41
Mar 29, 2024 at 3pm UK
Select Car Leasing Stadium
Northampton Town

Reading
1 - 0
Northampton

Ehibhaimha (65')
Elliott (22')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Monthe (4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Reading and Northampton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Reading 4-0 Cambridge
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Northampton 1-0 Derby
Saturday, March 23 at 3pm in League One

We said: Reading 2-1 Northampton Town

Northampton may have got the better of Reading in the reverse fixture, but the Royals tend to produce their best performances on home turf. Having won six of their last nine matches in Berkshire, we think that Reading will make full use of home advantage to edge out Northampton on Friday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 62.92%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 16.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-2 (4.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.

Result
ReadingDrawNorthampton Town
62.92% (-0.258 -0.26) 20.29% (0.123 0.12) 16.79% (0.134 0.13)
Both teams to score 54.65% (-0.143 -0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.13% (-0.331 -0.33)40.87% (0.329 0.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.74% (-0.335 -0.34)63.26% (0.33600000000001 0.34)
Reading Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.6% (-0.17400000000001 -0.17)12.4% (0.174 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.72% (-0.363 -0.36)38.28% (0.362 0.36)
Northampton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.38% (-0.038000000000004 -0.04)37.62% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.6% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)74.4% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Reading 62.91%
    Northampton Town 16.79%
    Draw 20.3%
ReadingDrawNorthampton Town
2-0 @ 10.16% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.94% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-0 @ 9.74% (0.081000000000001 0.08)
3-0 @ 7.07% (-0.036 -0.04)
3-1 @ 6.92% (-0.042 -0.04)
4-0 @ 3.69% (-0.044 -0.04)
4-1 @ 3.61% (-0.046 -0.05)
3-2 @ 3.38% (-0.024 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.76% (-0.025 -0.02)
5-0 @ 1.54% (-0.029 -0.03)
5-1 @ 1.51% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 3.6%
Total : 62.91%
1-1 @ 9.52% (0.069000000000001 0.07)
2-2 @ 4.86% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-0 @ 4.66% (0.069999999999999 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.1% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 20.3%
1-2 @ 4.65% (0.028 0.03)
0-1 @ 4.56% (0.063999999999999 0.06)
0-2 @ 2.23% (0.029 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.58% (-0.002 -0)
1-3 @ 1.52% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 16.79%

How you voted: Reading vs Northampton

Reading
80.0%
Draw
20.0%
Northampton Town
0.0%
15
Head to Head
Oct 3, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Northampton
3-1
Reading
Hoskins (10'), Appere (37'), Pinnock (90+6')
McWilliams (80')
Ballard (66')
Savage (11'), Ehibhaimha (15'), Mola (78')
Yiadom (90+1'), Mola (90+8')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148


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