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Ligue 1
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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 5
Sep 22, 2024 at 4pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Ble
Toulouse

Brest
2 - 0
Toulouse

Balde (21'), Faivre (90+1')
Pereira Lage (34'), Roy (36')
Roy (36')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Casseres Jr (19')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brest

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Brest 2-1 Sturm Graz
Thursday, September 19 at 8pm in Champions League

Toulouse

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Toulouse 2-0 Le Havre
Sunday, September 15 at 4pm in Ligue 1

We said: Brest 1-2 Toulouse

 Having given so much to get over the line in such an emotionally-charged encounter in the Champions League on Thursday, Brest may be slightly leggy against a much fresher Toulouse side who enter the game on the back of a good win last weekend. An underwhelming start suggests Brest will not hit the same heights as last season, and another defeat here will have them awkwardly looking over their shoulder. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 46.5%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 26.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.94%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.65%), while for a Toulouse win it was 0-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.

Result
BrestDrawToulouse
46.5% (0.376 0.38) 26.85% (0.073 0.07) 26.65% (-0.449 -0.45)
Both teams to score 47.8% (-0.531 -0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.34% (-0.525 -0.52)56.66% (0.525 0.52)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.38% (-0.421 -0.42)77.62% (0.422 0.42)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.65% (-0.049000000000007 -0.05)24.35% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.25% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)58.75% (0.073 0.07)
Toulouse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.19% (-0.659 -0.66)36.81% (0.659 0.66)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.41% (-0.665 -0.66)73.6% (0.666 0.67)
Score Analysis
    Brest 46.5%
    Toulouse 26.65%
    Draw 26.85%
BrestDrawToulouse
1-0 @ 12.66% (0.24 0.24)
2-0 @ 8.94% (0.153 0.15)
2-1 @ 8.94% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.21% (0.066 0.07)
3-1 @ 4.21% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.1% (-0.043 -0.04)
4-0 @ 1.49% (0.021 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.49% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 46.5%
1-1 @ 12.65% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.96% (0.178 0.18)
2-2 @ 4.47% (-0.084000000000001 -0.08)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 26.85%
0-1 @ 8.96% (0.02 0.02)
1-2 @ 6.32% (-0.11 -0.11)
0-2 @ 4.48% (-0.071 -0.07)
1-3 @ 2.11% (-0.075 -0.07)
0-3 @ 1.49% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.49% (-0.056 -0.06)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 26.65%

How you voted: Brest vs Toulouse

Brest
39.5%
Draw
27.9%
Toulouse
32.6%
43
Head to Head
May 19, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 34
Toulouse
0-3
Brest

Mawissa (53')
Camara (48'), Amavi (54'), Lala (90')
Pereira Lage (79'), Amavi (83')
> Preview
Oct 8, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 8
Brest
1-1
Toulouse
Satriano (90+2')
Camara (45+5'), Brassier (70')
Magri (27')
Spierings (10'), Magri (79')
> Preview
Apr 2, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 29
Brest
3-1
Toulouse
Mounie (33'), Le Douaron (63'), Camara (84')
Dallinga (10')
> Preview
Jan 15, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 19
Toulouse
1-1
Brest
Aboukhlal (65')
Mounie (18')
> Preview
Jan 11, 2020 7pm
Gameweek 20
Toulouse
2-5
Brest
Diakite (16', 21')
Vainqueur (84')
Court (7'), Charbonnier (72', 77'), Mbock (79'), Cardona (85')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG1192033102329
2MonacoMonaco117221881023
3Marseille116232415920
4Lille115421811719
5Lyon115331815318
6Nice1145221111017
7Reims115241915417
8Lens11452129317
9Auxerre115152019116
10Toulouse114341311215
11StrasbourgStrasbourg113442022-213
12Brest114161419-513
13Rennes113261318-511
14NantesNantes112451417-310
15Angers112451320-710
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne113171025-1510
17Le HavreLe Havre11308823-159
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier112181131-207
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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