Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 53.88%. A win for Brest had a probability of 23.08% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-2 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
Result | ||
Lens | Draw | Brest |
53.88% ( 0.22) | 23.04% ( -0.06) | 23.08% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 56% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.83% ( 0.1) | 44.18% ( -0.1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.45% ( 0.1) | 66.56% ( -0.09) |
Lens Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.67% ( 0.12) | 16.34% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.07% ( 0.21) | 45.93% ( -0.2) |
Brest Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.93% ( -0.08) | 33.07% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.33% ( -0.09) | 69.67% ( 0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Lens | Draw | Brest |
2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.79% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.87% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.93% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.68% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.29% Total : 53.88% | 1-1 @ 10.83% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.4% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.21% Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.03% | 1-2 @ 5.99% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.98% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.38% Total : 23.08% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 40 | 12 | 28 | 37 |
2 | Marseille | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 18 | 14 | 30 |
3 | MonacoMonaco | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 30 |
4 | Lille | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 27 |
5 | Lyon | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 25 |
6 | Nice | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 24 |
7 | Lens | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 24 |
8 | Auxerre | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 21 |
9 | Toulouse | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
10 | Reims | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 20 |
11 | Brest | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 19 |
12 | Rennes | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 17 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 17 |
14 | NantesNantes | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 14 |
15 | Angers | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 13 |
16 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 34 | -22 | 13 |
17 | Le HavreLe Havre | 15 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 29 | -18 | 12 |
18 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 38 | -23 | 9 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |