Ligue 1 | Gameweek 6
Sep 28, 2024 at 6pm UK
Stade Oceane
Le Havre0 - 3Lille
We said: Le Havre 1-2 Lille
Only two of Le Havre's 47 previous Ligue 1 home games have ended in draws, and this is likely to be no exception, in what could be a 30th defeat in that time for the hosts. Lille may be on a five-game winless streak, but Le Havre are favourable opponents for them having won the last five meetings between the two, and they are fancied to make it six here. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 45.81%. A win for Le Havre had a probability of 27.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (8.43%). The likeliest Le Havre win was 1-0 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Le Havre | Draw | Lille |
27.94% ( -0.28) | 26.24% ( -0.13) | 45.81% ( 0.4) |
| Both teams to score 50.46% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.34% ( 0.35) | 53.65% ( -0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.85% ( 0.29) | 75.15% ( -0.3) |
| Le Havre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.85% ( -0.03) | 34.14% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.16% ( -0.03) | 70.83% ( 0.02) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.63% ( 0.34) | 23.37% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.66% ( 0.5) | 57.34% ( -0.51) |
| Score Analysis |
Le Havre 27.94%
Lille 45.81%
Draw 26.24%
| Le Havre | Draw | Lille |
| 1-0 @ 8.57% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 6.7% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 4.61% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 2.4% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.65% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.27% Total : 27.94% | 1-1 @ 12.46% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.98% ( -0.11)2-2 @ 4.87% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.93% Total : 26.24% | 0-1 @ 11.59% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 9.06% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 8.43% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 4.39% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 4.09% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.6% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.49% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.81% Total : 45.81% |
How you voted: Le Havre vs Lille
Le Havre
25.0%Draw
25.0%Lille
50.0%36
